Alex Palou from Chip Ganassi Racing experienced a setback at the Toronto IndyCar race held at Exhibition Place, where despite starting on the front row and leading the most laps, he was unable to capitalize on a potential victory. Multiple cautions and unfortunate timing restricted him to a 12th-place finish, marking his worst issue-free race outcome since the 2022 event at Portland International Raceway. Entering the weekend, Palou held a commanding 129-point lead over Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward in the championship standings. To secure his fourth title with three races still on the calendar, Palou needed to increase that lead to 162 points after the upcoming Laguna Seca race.
However, O’Ward took advantage of Palou’s rare mid-pack finish by winning the race ahead of Dale Coyne Racing’s Rinus VeeKay, cutting 30 points from Palou’s margin. This reduced Palou’s lead to 99 points, keeping the championship battle alive as the season progresses.
Why Palou fell short of clinching the IndyCar championship at Laguna Seca
Each IndyCar race weekend offers drivers a maximum of 54 points: 50 for the race victory, one for leading a lap, two for leading the most laps, and one for winning the pole position. Since drivers automatically gain at least five points for starting a race, the maximum net gain over a competitor in a single event is 49 points. Palou currently holds the decisive wins tiebreaker over O’Ward, leading seven race wins to two, which is crucial if the championship standings remain close entering the final rounds.
To clinch the title with races still remaining, Palou needed a lead of 162 points after Laguna Seca. Alternatively, if both he and O’Ward compete in all remaining events, a 147-point gap would suffice. Yet, recent races have demonstrated that driver participation cannot be guaranteed, as seen with Nolan Siegel missing Iowa Speedway and Santino Ferrucci forced out in Toronto. With four races left, totaling 216 points, O’Ward faces a significant challenge overcoming Palou’s 99-point advantage.
Some fans have downplayed this margin by describing it as “only” 99 points, but such an interpretation overlooks the true scale of the deficit. Over the previous four races—the first time in O’Ward’s career that he has achieved four consecutive top-five finishes—he gained just 12 points more than Palou, despite winning twice in that span.
The significance of a 99-point lead in the battle for the championship
While O’Ward has historic success at circuits like Milwaukee and Nashville, Palou’s record at Laguna Seca and Portland provides him with a strong advantage, as he has twice won at each track and consistently posted top finishes. Although Zak Brown, Arrow McLaren’s CEO, has expressed faith in O’Ward’s championship chances, the statistical reality still favors Palou as the driver to beat.
Since joining Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021, Palou’s points losses relative to key rivals have rarely been this substantial. His largest four-race deficit came in 2022, amounting to just 79 points, even considering stretches including multiple Did Not Finishes (DNFs). For example, in 2022, despite the Indy 500’s former double points format being excluded, Palou scored 80 points from Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course through to Road America, while Marcus Ericsson led the series with 159 points during that period.
Even during back-to-back DNFs at the Indy road course and Gateway in 2021, Palou never lost more than 76 points to any competitor over any four-race block including those events. This consistency underlines Palou’s dominant presence in the series and the difficulty O’Ward faces in closing the gap despite his recent successes.
What lies ahead as the championship battle intensifies
With the championship race far from decided, fans and analysts will be watching closely as the Java House Grand Prix of Monterey takes place at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca, broadcast live on Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET Sunday, July 27. The event represents a critical opportunity for Palou to solidify his lead or for O’Ward to reduce the deficit further as the series nears its conclusion with races at Portland International Raceway, Milwaukee Mile, and Nashville Superspeedway.
While recent results at Toronto have complicated Palou’s easy path to a fourth championship, the 99-point lead still places him in a strong position to maintain the advantage. With uncertainties remaining around driver participation and the challenges of road course racing, the final four races promise intense competition and pivotal moments for the title fight.
