With just two races remaining before NASCAR’s 16-driver playoff lineup is finalized, the pressure is mounting, especially at Richmond Raceway in Virginia, where playoff hopes hang in the balance. Austin Dillon, despite currently holding low odds, has an opportunity to alter his Austin Dillon Richmond Playoff Chances dramatically with a strong performance on the historic short track Saturday night.
Richmond carries a history of surprising outcomes, and with the postseason cutoff drawing near, the stakes are incredibly high for drivers fighting to secure their spots before the regular-season finale at Daytona.
A Look at Dillon’s Richmond History and Current Prospects
Austin Dillon’s past performance at Richmond offers a compelling backdrop. Last summer, he crossed the finish line first after a controversial final-lap collision that took out leader Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin, but the victory was rescinded, costing him a playoff berth. However, Dillon was the dominant driver that night, leading 35 laps before contact in overtime. Now, a year later, he aims to achieve a clean, unquestioned win that would significantly improve his chances stepping into the playoffs.
This season, Dillon’s success on short tracks is notable — his worst finishes across venues like Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, Dover, and Iowa are relatively strong, underscoring his ability to contend on similar circuits. Despite a modest playoff probability of just 0.37%, his recent top-10 finish at Iowa hints that he could still be a formidable force at Richmond. A win by Dillon here could cause significant panic among bubble drivers vying for final playoff inclusion.
Other Drivers to Watch as Richmond Approaches
Brad Keselowski also enters Richmond with attention, holding a 6.95% chance to reach the postseason. His recent third-place finish at Iowa demonstrated his car’s potential when it matters most, although race strategies disrupted by cautions kept him from clinching a playoff position so far. Keselowski ranks ninth in points over the last ten races, indicating consistent form leading into this pivotal event.
Alex Bowman, with a much higher playoff probability of 93.64%, hopes to secure his postseason spot at Richmond, but his short track record in recent years is less inspiring. Bowman has finished 17th or worse four times in his last five Richmond races, though his strategy to collect valuable stage points recently at Watkins Glen reflects his focus on accumulating every point possible. Early track position at Richmond could be crucial for him to convert those points into a playoff berth.
Drivers on the Edge and the Threat of Upsets
Chris Buescher is currently positioned just above the elimination line, sitting 34 points ahead of teammate Ryan Preece. Despite a relatively secure 69.22% playoff probability, Buescher’s struggles on short tracks this season are cause for concern. Subpar finishes at Iowa and Martinsville suggest he cannot rely on points alone if an upset winner emerges at Richmond or beyond.
With 321 points earned over the last ten races, Buescher remains third among drivers in recent points gained. However, the volatility of late-season racing means that a single surprise winner could disrupt the standings, jeopardizing his spot despite his solid season totals. As Buescher himself admits, he “hates points racing,” and a victory would be his best path to playoff security.
Implications for Playoff Contenders as Richmond Draws Near
The outcome at Richmond will play a critical role in solidifying or shaking up the playoff playoff landscape before the regular-season finale at Daytona. Drivers like Dillon, Keselowski, Bowman, and Buescher all face distinct challenges: either pushing to win outright, securing critical stage points, or defending fragile leads in the standings.
Given Richmond’s history of dramatic finishes and unexpected twists, this race will be a test of nerves and strategy for all playoff hopefuls. The tension only intensifies knowing a win here can erase points deficits entirely and send drivers into the postseason with newfound momentum, while costly mistakes or poor finishes could end title dreams prematurely.
