Two races into the Round of 12 and after a dramatic incident at Kansas Speedway on October 3, 2025, Bubba Wallace’s chances of advancing in the NASCAR playoffs have taken a significant hit. While Denny Hamlin secured a strong points cushion, Wallace now faces a steep challenge to remain in contention for the championship, with the upcoming Charlotte Roval race critical for his playoff survival.
Hamlin’s Strong Position and Wallace’s Troubles at Kansas
At Kansas, Denny Hamlin dominated early on, leading 159 laps, winning both stages, and posting the race’s fastest lap as he chased his 60th career victory. In contrast, Bubba Wallace struggled with car handling issues and was involved in a collision caused by Hamlin, who battled broken power steering. This contact pushed Wallace up the track and into the wall, damaging his chances as he fell to fifth place at the finish, while Chase Elliott stormed past to win.
The result dealt a blow to Wallace’s playoff hopes, as a victory for either driver would have secured an automatic berth into the Round of 8. Hamlin currently sits comfortably with a 48-point lead above the playoff cutoff, while Wallace is in jeopardy. NASCAR insiders analyzing the situation on PRN Live noted the steep drop in Wallace’s status after the Kansas race.
“Well, he’s 48 points above the cut line and in pretty good shape, Zach. The problem is that the car he owns, that Bubba Wallace drives, between turn four and the checkered flag went from a guaranteed spot in the final eight if he wins to 26 points below the cut line by the time he crossed the finish line and finished fifth.”
Doug Rice, NASCAR Insider
“Which is a margin that is almost impossible to make up at the Roval. You just got to go for the win if you’re Bubba Wallace, and unfortunately, he doesn’t; he’s not a guy who we expect to go contend for the win.”
Unnamed NASCAR Insider
Wallace’s Road Course Record Offers Some Hope but Challenges Remain
Wallace’s history at the Charlotte Roval, NASCAR’s challenging road course, provides a glimmer of hope. Last year, he finished ninth in the NASCAR Cup Series event at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s road course, their second top-10 finish there following a seventh-place in 2022. This record highlights his growth in a discipline that was once a weakness.
Still, the coming race is a difficult one for Wallace, who must now deliver an exceptional points performance or outright win to advance. Analysts estimate that even a top-five finish without a victory gives him only a 17.2% chance of moving on. Compounding this is Wallace’s current ranking, which shows the lowest Next-Gen road course Driver Rating among active playoff participants, trailing behind drivers like Shane van Gisbergen (SVG).
Team 23XI Racing’s Battle Amidst NASCAR Playoff Tensions
While Wallace fights to keep his playoff hopes alive, teammate Tyler Reddick also finds himself in a challenging points position, with an even slimmer chance of advancing. Reddick’s stronger road course performance, with a 100.2 average rating close to SVG’s, gives him the best shot among his teammates to overcome points deficits by pursuing a win.
Starting on the pole position at the Charlotte Roval, a track where Reddick has consistently placed no worse than 12th since 2020, he remains a potential spoiler despite the tough scenario. The upcoming race presents a Hail Mary opportunity for both drivers under mounting pressure as the NASCAR playoffs reach their crucial phase.
Denny Hamlin on Wallace’s Threat at the Charlotte Roval
Hamlin, who is not only a competitor but also a co-owner of 23XI Racing, recently acknowledged Wallace’s development as a formidable road course driver, once among his weakest areas. Hamlin issued a clear warning to the field ahead of the Roval, emphasizing Wallace’s improved capabilities and the threat he poses.
“You’ll have to contend with him this weekend, too. His road course skills have improved dramatically.”
Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Driver and 23XI Racing Co-owner
This endorsement highlights Wallace’s position as 23XI Racing’s strongest card heading into one of NASCAR’s toughest playoff challenges. Despite the tensions and setbacks at Kansas, Hamlin views Wallace as the team’s most competitive weapon, underscoring the importance of the upcoming Roval race for his driver and the team’s championship aspirations.
Implications for Bubba Wallace and NASCAR Playoffs Moving Forward
With the playoff cutoff rapidly approaching, Bubba Wallace faces an uphill struggle in the NASCAR Cup Series championship chase. His performance at the Charlotte Roval will be pivotal, requiring near flawless execution and perhaps some favorable breaks to maintain his postseason hopes. The battle is intensified by Hamlin’s strong footing, which contrasts sharply with Wallace’s dwindling margin for error.
Wallace’s evolving road course skills could turn the tide, but with his current points standing and challenges from other competitors like Reddick and SVG, the pressure is immense. This crossroads moment not only tests Wallace’s resilience but also highlights the unpredictable, often ruthless nature of NASCAR playoff racing as teams and drivers navigate injuries, mechanical issues, and fierce competition.
As the Round of 12 finale unfolds, all eyes will be on the Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval, where fortunes may change and playoff dreams could be either secured or shattered for Bubba Wallace and his 23XI Racing teammates.
