Can Denny Hamlin clinch a place in the NASCAR Championship 4 this year? Historical trends suggest he holds an impressive 88% chance to advance. Hamlin, driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, has already made a significant impact in the 2025 season by becoming the first driver to secure four victories, positioning himself strongly as the playoffs unfold.
Since NASCAR introduced the playoff points and elimination-style format in 2017, the first driver to win four races in a season has advanced to the Championship 4 in seven of the last eight years. The lone exception was Kyle Larson in 2024, who missed that milestone. In 2025, Hamlin aims to avoid joining Larson in this rare category by maintaining his strong performance.
Hamlin’s Dominance Throughout the Season and Playoffs
Hamlin’s four wins this season came at Martinsville in March, Darlington in April, Michigan in June, and Dover Motor Speedway in July. His consistency continued into the playoffs, with a victory at Gateway in September and a close second-place finish at Kansas, where he led the majority of laps and swept both stages.
“It’s the goal at the beginning of the year is to make the Championship 4,”
Hamlin said before the playoffs began.
“To do that, you obviously have to put in some work during the regular season and you’ve got to perform well in the playoffs.”
– Denny Hamlin, NASCAR driver
The seasoned driver’s confidence is supported by historical data from his past playoff performances, revealing a pattern of improvement during postseason racing.
“I think our record in the Playoffs speaks for itself. Our average finish drops every year in the Playoffs. We run better every year in the final 10 than what we do in the regular season,”
Hamlin remarked, emphasizing his strong playoff capabilities. – Denny Hamlin, NASCAR driver
Statistical evidence backs his observation: Hamlin’s average finishing position in 2025 improved from 13.9 at the end of the regular season to 13.3 after five playoff races. Similar progress was noted in 2024 and 2022, with average finishes improving by multiple positions during playoff runs.
Challenges Awaiting in the Round of 8
Despite Hamlin’s solid position entering the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval road course cutoff race, where he held fourth place and a 48-point lead over the elimination threshold, advancing from the Round of 8 to the Championship 4 remains unpredictable and challenging.
“We’ve never cruised through that third round. It doesn’t matter which racetrack it’s been, it always gets tight there,”
Hamlin said, underscoring the tension in this critical playoff phase.
“With Talladega being in the second-to-last round, I just don’t know how many points you would have to have to feel comfortable going into that round.”
– Denny Hamlin, NASCAR driver
Success in this stage is crucial to keeping Hamlin’s championship aspirations alive. Qualifying for the Championship 4 would mark his fifth appearance, including 2014 and 2019 through 2021, although he has yet to reach that milestone in the NextGen era that began in 2022.
The Potential Legacy of Becoming a Four-Time Winner Champion
If Hamlin reaches the Championship 4 and goes on to win the Cup championship, he would join an elite group of drivers who secured the title after being the first to win four races in a season. Historically, this achievement has been rare but attainable for only a handful of drivers.
On the other hand, should Hamlin fall short, he risks becoming the first since 2017 to have multiple seasons as the first driver to four wins without clinching the Cup, joining names like Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, and others who faced the same fate despite making the Championship 4.
- Martin Truex Jr., 2017
- Kevin Harvick, 2018
- Kyle Busch, 2019
- Denny Hamlin, 2020
- Kyle Larson, 2021
- Chase Elliott, 2022
- William Byron, 2023
Hamlin’s Career Milestones and All-Time Rankings
Aside from his 2025 playoff efforts, Denny Hamlin boasts 59 career NASCAR Cup Series wins, holding the record for the most victories without having earned a Cup championship. He currently stands just one victory shy of tying Kevin Harvick for 10th on the all-time wins list.
Additionally, Hamlin recently reached a significant career milestone at Kansas by securing his 374th Top-10 finish, tying Ricky Rudd for 10th place on the all-time Top-10 finishes list. Achieving one more Top-10 finish would place Hamlin alongside seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson, ranking ninth all-time in this category.
With his eyes set on both the championship and climbing the historical ranks, Hamlin’s Denny Hamlin Championship Chances remain a key storyline throughout the remainder of the NASCAR season. Observers will watch closely as he navigates the tough playoff rounds ahead, balancing experience and competitive pressure in his pursuit of racing history.
