At Michigan International Speedway last Sunday, Denny Hamlin, a veteran of Joe Gibbs Racing, achieved a significant milestone by earning his 57th career NASCAR Cup Series win after 700 starts. His victory narrowed the gap toward the coveted 60-win mark, a milestone that Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr. believes only two active drivers in the garage have a realistic chance to reach.
Drivers Poised to Challenge the 60-Win Benchmark
Dale Earnhardt Jr. identified Joey Logano and Kyle Larson as the only two competitors with the potential to match 60 Cup wins, but he emphasized the necessity of certain conditions for this achievement. Currently, both drivers have fewer than 40 victories, and according to Earnhardt Jr., they must continue racing for championship-caliber teams like Penske and Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) to remain on track for the milestone.
Logano is 35 years old and has 37 wins. Logano, in my opinion, is the only one that could probably get there. Larson could do it. The only thing is, is Larson and Joey have to stay in the Championship-winning cars to get to that number. That’s the problem.
—Dale Earnhardt Jr., JR Motorsports co-owner
Logano, currently 35, began his NASCAR career at 19 and now holds 37 wins, making him a strong candidate if he maintains his current performance and team situation. Larson, the 2021 Cup Series champion who has accumulated fewer wins, also has the potential but faces uncertainty regarding his career length and team placement.
Factors Influencing Logano and Larson’s Paths to 60 Wins
Hamlin’s longevity and success are strongly tied to his continuous career with Joe Gibbs Racing, where he started and has remained a consistent winner. In contrast, both Logano and Larson spent significant portions of their careers with other teams before settling with their current organizations. Logano had an unremarkable stint with JGR before flourishing at Team Penske, while Larson spent seven years at Chip Ganassi Racing prior to joining Rick Hendrick’s HMS.
Earnhardt Jr. explained that this stability is crucial for reaching 60 wins, emphasizing how both drivers must avoid slipping into secondary roles on their championship-winning teams. Additionally, they face the challenge of rising younger drivers competing aggressively for victories in the Cup Series.
If something happens — there’s new drivers coming in, always the next best thing and the greatest guy — as long as you don’t become the B or the C driver at the great teams, as long as Joey and Larson are in Championship cars, which that sounds crazy to think they’ll never be but you just never know what might happen in five, 10 years.
—Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Both drivers must maintain their status as lead drivers on top-tier teams for the next five to ten years, an ambitious prospect given their age and the physical demands of NASCAR racing. Logano, now 37, faces natural limits in career longevity, while Larson’s future is less certain, as he may choose to retire earlier or continue racing for many more years.
Larson might not want to race that long, you just don’t know. He might race till he’s 60, who knows? He might win 80 races.
—Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Perspectives from NASCAR Veterans on the 60-Win Club Prospects
Former NASCAR Cup driver Kyle Petty also weighed in on the possibility of other drivers joining Hamlin in reaching or surpassing 60 Cup wins. While acknowledging Logano and Larson as contenders, he expressed skepticism about seeing any other racer achieve such a milestone due to career longevity and competitiveness from emerging talents.
Denny Hamlin’s going to get to 60 Cup wins. Don’t think we’re going to see another driver do it. I know everyone wants to talk Joey Logano. I know everybody wants to Kyle Larson, and there may be somebody that comes along years from now that gets close.
—Kyle Petty, former NASCAR Cup racer
These discussions highlight the enduring respect and recognition for Hamlin’s career achievements, considering he has been one of the most consistent and formidable drivers in NASCAR for over two decades. Whether Logano and Larson will join the exclusive 60+ wins list remains to be seen and will depend on their ongoing performance and circumstances over the next several seasons.
Summary of Challenges and Future Outlook for Logano and Larson
To reach the milestone of 60 Cup wins, both Logano and Larson will need to maintain peak performance while securing rides in championship-winning teams, avoiding demotion to supporting driver roles. On top of this, they must compete effectively against an influx of younger drivers eager to establish their own legacies in the sport.
Logano’s experience and current momentum favor his chances, but age and physical demands may limit his ability to continue racing for the decade-long horizon needed. Larson’s future is more open-ended, with potential for a lengthy career or an early retirement, making predictions difficult.
This evolving dynamic between established stars and emerging talents will shape NASCAR’s competitive landscape and influence who ultimately reaches the legendary 60-win benchmark.
