Formerly, luck was a significant factor in determining success in NASCAR, especially in winning Cup championships, but that perspective has shifted, according to Denny Hamlin, a prominent Cup driver. Over the years, Hamlin has observed a notable change in the balance between skill, equipment, and luck driving race outcomes.
Back in 2012, Hamlin shared his view that victory in a Cup championship was influenced 40 percent by the driver, 40 percent by the car and team, and 20 percent by luck. Recently, when asked by The Athletic about whether these proportions have evolved over 13 years, Hamlin acknowledged some adjustments.
I still think it’s 40 percent driver (but) now I’d switch car and luck to 30 percent each,
Hamlin said.
Hamlin attributes this shift partly to the introduction of the Next Generation, or Gen 7 car, in 2022. These vehicles are more uniform than ever before, limiting modifications throughout NASCAR history and reducing disparities in performance across teams.
Cars aren’t quite as much of a factor because they’re more similar now, and luck because of the parity and since the cars all run the same speed,
he explained.
Driver still matters. That’s why you see the same guys up front every week.
Denny Hamlin’s Luck at the Casino Contrasts with His Cup Title Chase
While Hamlin’s luck on the racetrack may have diminished, he has experienced some fortune outside racing. Earlier this year, during a NASCAR weekend event in Las Vegas, Hamlin reportedly won nearly $275,000 playing slots and table games at a local casino.
However, when examining his Cup championship record, luck has not been on his side. Since beginning his full-time Cup career in 2006, Hamlin has qualified for the playoffs every year except one. His track record includes six appearances in the Championship 4, with one runner-up finish in 2010, three third-place finishes (2006, 2014, and 2021), and two fourth-place results in 2019 and 2020. Nevertheless, the coveted Cup Series championship has eluded him thus far.
Reevaluating NASCAR Success Percentages After Further Consideration
Shortly after his initial comments, Hamlin reached back out to The Athletic with a revised viewpoint. Drawing a parallel with the NFL‘s instant replay review system, he reassessed his original percentages for the factors influencing NASCAR success.
After thinking about it more, I believe these are the correct percentages in today’s world: driver 65 percent, team 25 percent, luck 10 percent,
Hamlin said.
He further explained that luck’s role has decreased because strong performance directly results from skill rather than chance. Although luck still plays a minor role in some victories, the proficiency of great drivers creates more opportunities to win.
Team does matter, but with the Next Gen (car), you can’t build the difference in cars like you used to. The driver is the one who sends team in a direction to make the cars fast, thus being the most important.
Strong Season Performance Highlights Hamlin’s Focus on Skill
This season, Hamlin has demonstrated solid results, appearing consistently at the front of the field. In the first 24 races, with just two remaining before the playoffs, including an event at Richmond Raceway, his hometown track, he has claimed four wins along with 11 top-five and 12 top-10 finishes.
As Hamlin has already secured a spot in the playoffs this year, it would be a remarkable coincidence if the season marked the moment when diminished emphasis on luck corresponded with finally capturing his first Cup championship. Should that happen, it may lead Hamlin to reassess the role luck plays in NASCAR victories once again.
