On September 9, 2025, NASCAR veteran Denny Hamlin expressed his reservations about 17-year-old Connor Zilisch’s ability to clinch the Xfinity Series championship despite the young driver’s exceptional performance this season. Zilisch, driving the No. 88 for JR Motorsports, has secured nine victories, including a recent win at Gateway, putting him within striking distance of Kyle Busch’s 2010 single-season record of 13 wins. Leading the playoffs by 59 points after capturing the regular-season title, Zilisch’s momentum positions him as a clear favorite, but Hamlin cautions that success in the playoffs requires more than maintaining a winning streak.
While Zilisch’s dominant form has stirred excitement within NASCAR circles, Hamlin’s analysis introduces a tempered perspective on the challenges ahead. JR Motorsports, with support from Dale Earnhardt Jr.—who stepped in as substitute crew chief during a Pocono race this year—has demonstrated strong team execution. However, complications lurking in pit strategy and track performance could jeopardize Zilisch’s championship aspirations over the final eight playoff races.
Hamlin Highlights Strategic Pit Road Excellence but Predicts Potential Playoff Setback
Speaking on the Action Incremental podcast, Hamlin commended the No. 88 team’s flawless pit strategy and Zilisch’s skill on pit road, which consistently preserve track position. He observed,
“They’re keeping him up front, you know, and by the numbers, they’re not crazy stellar, but it seems like the combination of all the things, you know, maybe Connor’s doing a good job on Pit Road as well,
”
and added,
“But like, he’s never losing his track position.”
This approach turned a modest third-place car into a race winner as Zilisch capitalized on rivals’ pit stop errors, underscoring the value of consistent execution amidst the traffic.
Despite the commanding regular-season performance and four consecutive wins to open the playoffs, Hamlin foresees a likely stumble. When pressed on whether Zilisch would lose again this year, Hamlin responded simply, “Yes.” Even if Zilisch reaches the Phoenix finale as the points leader, Hamlin argued that victory there won’t be guaranteed, citing Zilisch’s previous modest Xfinity showing at Phoenix, where he finished 16th this season in contrast to teammate and defending champion Justin Allgaier‘s stronger results.
Hamlin emphasized Allgaier’s experience and proficiency at Phoenix, noting his 30 starts, two wins, and consistent top-10 finishes, including a fifth-place this season to Zilisch’s 16th. Asked if Allgaier outperforms Zilisch at Phoenix, Hamlin replied, “I think so,” adding,
“I think it suits the seven if they can make it.”
This prediction suggests that while the No. 88 car could achieve 10 to 12 wins through the road courses and intermediate tracks left in the season, the playoff format’s final race could expose vulnerabilities.
Hamlin concluded with a bold forecast:
“I’m gonna make a wild prediction. I think the 88 wins 10 races and does not win the championship,”
acknowledging the playoff structure rewards single-race mastery over cumulative dominance. This reflects the challenge for Zilisch to sustain peak performance when faced with specialized competitors like Allgaier during the playoff finale.
Hamlin Endorses Zilisch as a Ready Contender for the Next NASCAR Level
Beyond his doubts about the championship outcome, Hamlin expressed strong belief in Connor Zilisch’s capabilities, viewing the teenager as ready to advance to NASCAR’s premier Cup Series. On NASCAR: The Day After, he lauded Zilisch’s maturity and overall growth, noting,
“Well, he’s certainly ready (to compete in the Cup Series). I don’t think he has anything more to prove in the Xfinity series, which is why he’s getting the call-up to Cup, but it’s a tall fence,”
underlining the challenge of the next step despite Zilisch’s dominance.
Zilisch’s season statistics bolster Hamlin’s confidence, with nine wins, multiple poles, and 20 top-10 finishes reflecting remarkable consistency and skill. Hamlin compared Zilisch’s progress on ovals to Shane van Gisbergen’s development in his second Cup year, adding,
“He’s far ahead of where I was at that point. So yeah, I think that he’s certainly ready. He’s going to be competitive. Certainly, a playoff contender,”
emphasizing the teenager’s readiness to compete at higher levels.
Hamlin highlighted Zilisch’s road course strengths as a foundation for Cup success but pointed out that oval racing remains the critical proving ground. He expressed particular interest in benchmarking Zilisch’s rookie Cup oval performance against van Gisbergen’s second-year results:
“I want to see in Connor’s rookie season, where does he run relative to Shane on the ovals in Shane’s second year? Like, are they comparable, or is Connor ahead?”
However, Hamlin tempered expectations by underlining the importance of equipment quality. He cautioned,
“Trackhouse Racing must give him cars fast enough to run at the sharp end, and only then can Zilisch show the full measure of his potential.”
This note of realism recognizes that Zilisch’s rapid adaptation and talent must be complemented by competitive machinery to challenge established veterans effectively.
Implications for NASCAR’s Future as Playoffs Unfold
Denny Hamlin’s nuanced perspective offers both caution and optimism for Connor Zilisch’s trajectory in the Xfinity Series and beyond. While Hamlin questions Zilisch’s ability to maintain perfection through the intense pressure of the playoffs and the championship’s winner-takes-all finale at Phoenix, he simultaneously champions the young driver’s readiness to advance to NASCAR’s highest level.
Zilisch’s performance this season has already positioned him as a top contender, forcing teams and fans alike to recognize the arrival of a formidable new talent. Hamlin’s champion teammate Justin Allgaier remains the benchmark for oval strength, particularly at Phoenix, but Zilisch’s road course prowess and season-long consistency paint the picture of a driver with a broad skill set capable of adapting and growing.
As the playoffs progress with seven races before the championship showdown, the looming questions revolve around Zilisch’s resilience under pressure, adaptability to each track’s unique demands, and JR Motorsports’ ability to maintain strategic excellence. Hamlin’s prediction of multiple wins without a championship win challenges the narrative that dominance guarantees titles under NASCAR’s playoff format.
Looking ahead, Zilisch’s elevation to the Cup Series will be a major storyline to watch, as his rookie season and comparison to drivers like Shane van Gisbergen could reshape expectations for young drivers making the transition. Ultimately, Hamlin’s assessment frames Zilisch as a rising star capturing the attention and respect of veterans, while also underscoring the uncertainties inherent in achieving championship glory.
