Ducati’s MotoGP GP25 crisis has come to light in dramatic fashion during the 2025 racing season, as data comparisons reveal the GP25 is not only slower than its predecessor but also threatens the brand’s recent dominance. Despite Marc Marquez’s wins, expert analysis from Mat Oxley shows the newest version is a step backward, imperiling Ducati’s hard-won prestige.
Initial expectations for 2025 centered on sustained Ducati supremacy, especially with Marquez at the helm. However, under the scrutiny of MotoGP journalist and ex-racer Mat Oxley, hard evidence has emerged that suggests a troubling decline. Oxley conducted meticulous analysis, comparing results from eleven races under directly matched circumstances.
“I compared all the races from 2024 and 2025 under strictly comparable conditions. There are eleven races.”
– Mat Oxley, Journalist and Former Racer
Results indicate that in six out of these eleven races, the 2025 winners—often Marquez—posted slower laps than those from the previous year. Only three races saw improved times, while two displayed no change.
“In six of those races, the winner—typically Marquez—was indeed slower than in 2024. He beat everyone, yes… but at a slower pace,”
Mat Oxley, Journalist and Former Racer, reveals. This data points to an undercurrent of regression beneath the surface victories.
Data Exposes Flaws and Impact on Top Ducati Riders
This unexpected reversal comes right after Ducati’s significant advancement with the GP24 in 2024. The GP25’s disappointing showing has started to overshadow Marc Marquez’s personal feats, signaling deeper structural issues with the bike itself. For Francesco Bagnaia, the change has been especially stark. After achieving eighteen wins and narrowly missing the championship by ten points in 2024, Bagnaia now faces uncertain form and mounting pressure about his future at Ducati, especially beyond 2026, should he fail to measure up to the pace set by Marquez.
Fabio Di Giannantonio, another Ducati rider, has also had trouble adapting to the GP25. His season has been marked by inconsistency, which further highlights the increased difficulty and shortcomings of the new bike compared to the GP24.
Evidence of Regression: Motegi and Other Critical Circuits
A particularly striking example comes from the Motegi circuit. Here, Francesco Bagnaia matched his previous year’s lap time despite the GP25’s supposed advancements. This achievement, however, came after Bagnaia reverted to using several GP24 components, which resulted in pole position, a sprint race win, and a Grand Prix victory for the weekend—a fresh win but on what could be considered a step-down machine.
Mat Oxley also identified circuits like Barcelona, Mugello, Assen, and Sachsenring—where Marquez’s wins were marked by slower speeds than the previous season.
“These are tracks where Marquez used to win… but at slower speeds than in 2024,”
Mat Oxley, Journalist and Former Racer, emphasizes. This pattern draws attention to the magnitude of the problem: performances are stagnating or declining even at previously successful tracks.
Rivals’ Progress and Strategic Dilemmas at Ducati
Ducati’s crisis worsens as opponents such as Aprilia Racing seize momentum. Marco Bezzecchi, riding for Aprilia, ended the season on a high note with two victories and a solid third-place finish in the championship. These gains increase the urgency for Ducati to choose its next steps carefully, either continuing in the direction favored by Marquez or returning to the all-around capability seen in the GP24.
Reports indicate that Ducati has shifted decision-making authority over technical development for 2026 from Bagnaia to Marquez, requiring his approval on all planned changes. Despite continued race wins, this data-backed approach signals that the GP25’s wins are achieved by individual brilliance rather than technological superiority. Bagnaia’s struggles and Di Giannantonio’s inconsistencies show that not all talented riders can overcome the GP25’s current limitations.
The Road to 2026: Pressure Builds on Ducati to Recover Lost Ground
The crisis now centers on how long Marc Marquez’s skill can mask the Ducati MotoGP GP25 crisis, as rivals gain on previously insurmountable ground. The 2026 season may mark the point where Ducati risks falling permanently behind if decisive action is not taken soon. The brand now faces a profound challenge—not merely to fend off pressure from Aprilia, KTM, and others, but to design a motorcycle capable of serving both its star and the broader team of riders.
Borgo Panigale’s approach of prioritizing Marquez succeeded in the short term but revealed clear shortcomings for other riders. As the shadow of past MotoGP collapses looms over Ducati, the company must urgently rediscover the formula for a universally competitive bike, or risk seeing its empire fracture from within, eclipsed by the relentless advance of its competitors.
