Max Verstappen has been the subject of speculation regarding a potential move to Mercedes in the 2026 Formula 1 season, despite being under contract with Red Bull until the end of 2028. The Dutch driver, widely regarded as the top competitor on the grid, might only be able to leave his current team by triggering a costly contract buyout, estimated to exceed $100 million.
The 27-year-old Verstappen has secured four consecutive world championships but faces uncertainty with Red Bull’s performance prospects. The team’s current RB21 car is not matching up well against rivals such as McLaren’s MCL39, raising questions about Verstappen’s chances of securing a fifth title while remaining with Red Bull.
As Formula 1 approaches significant regulatory changes in 2026, which include Red Bull developing its own power units, concerns have grown about the Austrian team’s ability to maintain championship-winning form. Meanwhile, Mercedes, based in Brackley and a dominant force since 2014, has shown interest in acquiring Verstappen, intensifying the speculation of a high-profile transfer.
Verstappen is reportedly prepared to join Mercedes in 2026, but contract complications with Red Bull remain a major obstacle. While performance-related release clauses could offer a pathway out, their activation seems unlikely. Consequently, Verstappen might be forced to proceed with a buyout clause, reportedly costing well over $100 million. Sky Sports F1’s Craig Slater cited a Red Bull insider explaining this costly option:
“The sort of internal discussion with the Red Bull hierarchy about losing Verstappen or keeping an unhappy Max Verstappen. And then also this idea which has been expressed to me from a team insider that it would cost in excess of nine figures – so £100 million plus – for Max to buy his way out of his deal.”
—Craig Slater, Sky Sports F1 Analyst
Mercedes demonstrated superior engineering when turbo-hybrid engines were introduced in 2014, which led to a dominant streak of eight constructors‘ and seven drivers‘ championships over the following eight years. This historical success marks them as a highly attractive destination for Verstappen as the sport evolves.
Challenges of Predicting Mercedes’ Future Competitiveness for Verstappen
The upcoming 2026 rule changes are expected to drastically alter F1’s competitive landscape, making it difficult for drivers like Verstappen to predict who will have the fastest car. This uncertainty contributes to the complexity of Verstappen’s decision as he weighs a possible move to Mercedes.
Speaking about the unpredictability of future performance, Verstappen reflected on the difficulty of always being in the best car, according to Formula 1:
“It’s difficult in F1 to always be in the fastest car because then you have to look into the future. Who would have known that two years ago this would be the case. That is also something I don’t spend a lot of focus [on]. I think the only focus that I have at the moment is just trying to improve the situation.”
—Max Verstappen, F1 Driver
Currently, Verstappen is third in the drivers’ standings, having scored 155 points after 11 race weekends in the ongoing season, underlining his continued competitiveness despite underlying challenges.
Implications of Verstappen’s Potential Move and Contract Situation
If Verstappen proceeds with a buyout to exit Red Bull, it would mark one of the most expensive contract separations in Formula 1 history. This substantial financial barrier illustrates the tension surrounding his future and the competitive pressures both teams face ahead of the sport’s next era.
For Mercedes, securing Verstappen would strengthen their bid to regain championship dominance under the new regulations, while Red Bull could face a strategic setback losing their star driver. How this contract battle unfolds will significantly impact team dynamics and championship outcomes in the coming years.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. What gender is Max Verstappen’s baby?
A. Max Verstappen and Kelly Piquet have announced the birth of their baby girl. The news comes just before the Miami Grand Prix.
