Despite the tightness of available seats for the 2026 MotoGP season, the rumor mill has been buzzing loudly over recent weeks. Officially, only four seats are confirmed as open at the end of the 2025 campaign, with riders currently occupying those bikes on expiring contracts. Yet, whispers of unexpected moves and bombshell departures suggest the market could see significant shifts.
The four confirmed seats available are Luca Marini at Honda, Johann Zarco at LCR Honda, Jack Miller at Pramac Yamaha, and Franco Morbidelli at VR46 Ducati. Beyond that, a handful of high-profile riders could also be on the move, with reigning world champion Jorge Martin’s potential exit from Aprilia grabbing the most attention.
Aprilia’s Jorge Martin Bombshell: A Potential Shake-Up
Jorge Martin’s signing with Aprilia was heralded as a coup when it happened nearly a year ago. The Spaniard agreed to a two-year contract for 2025 and 2026, after being denied a coveted spot on Ducati’s factory squad. Aprilia moved quickly and invested heavily to secure him, hoping he would be a cornerstone of their RS-GP project.
However, the relationship appears to be unraveling before it has really begun. Martin has struggled with injuries this year, only managing to race in the Qatar Grand Prix weekend before a crash at Lusail sidelined him once again. According to a motorsport.com report dated 12 May, Martin is considering exercising a performance clause in his contract to leave Aprilia for 2026, with strong speculation that Honda is his preferred destination.
Aprilia is reportedly prepared to contest this move, potentially taking the matter to court. The Italian manufacturer argues that the performance clause should not apply given Martin’s limited track time due to injury. Regardless, the trust between rider and team seems broken, making it hard to envision Martin staying with Aprilia beyond 2025.
If Martin does leave, Aprilia must act swiftly to find a replacement. Luca Marini, whose contract with Honda expires at the end of 2025, appears to be the frontrunner. Marini’s analytical approach to bike development has endeared him to Honda and could be a significant asset to Aprilia, especially considering the recent upswing in the RC213V’s competitiveness.
Aprilia may also consider promoting from within, eyeing Ai Ogura from Trackhouse Racing. Ogura, currently the top Aprilia rider in the standings in 10th place, has impressed in his rookie season. However, Trackhouse Racing’s lack of major sponsorship could make a transfer feasible, though Ogura’s inexperience may work against him in factory-level considerations.
This situation is reminiscent of Aprilia’s 2020 gamble on Andrea Iannone during his doping trial, which cost them potential signings such as Cal Crutchlow and left them fielding Lorenzo Savadori before Maverick Viñales arrived. Aprilia’s cautious approach now could again impact their roster and competitiveness.
Honda’s Central Role and Potential New Faces
Honda stands as the biggest player in the 2026 rider market, with two key riders — Luca Marini and Johann Zarco — on expiring contracts. Zarco, who has been a consistent frontrunner for Honda, won the French GP in 2025 — Honda’s first victory in two years — and is reportedly keen to join the HRC factory team. Both Honda and Zarco seem interested in continuing their partnership, with Zarco likely to sign a new deal at LCR Honda.
Marini has confirmed that contract talks are underway, and he remains an option for Honda’s future line-up. Meanwhile, rumors have swirled about Honda potentially signing World Superbike champion Toprak Razgatlioglu, aiming to improve development of its 850cc machine for the 2027 season. However, the Razgatlioglu trail has recently cooled.
More compelling is the speculation surrounding Pedro Acosta. Discontent with KTM’s struggles this year amid their financial difficulties, Acosta is seen as a prime candidate for Honda. Given Honda’s financial strength and promising bike development, the move would make strategic sense. However, Acosta’s current long-term deal with KTM complicates matters, especially with both he and Martin being managed by Albert Valera. Should Martin’s contract dispute with Aprilia resolve in his favor, this could ease Acosta’s potential transition to Honda.
Ducati’s Stable Line-Up and Eye on the Futur
Ducati has largely maintained a steady rider situation looking into 2026. Marc Marquez continues to perform at expected levels, Alex Marquez has stepped up significantly at Gresini, and rookie Fermin Aldeguer has impressed. Pecco Bagnaia, despite a rough start to 2025, is expected to find form in time.
Fabio Di Giannantonio and Franco Morbidelli have shown decent results on their factory bikes, though Morbidelli’s contract expires at the end of the current season. The VR46 Racing environment offers him some stability, but the team continues to back Morbidelli despite ongoing rumors linking Pedro Acosta to a VR46 move.
Valentino Rossi, VR46’s figurehead, reportedly “likes Acosta very much” but has not committed to any formal negotiations. VR46’s lack of financial firepower compared to Honda limits its ability to lure top talent like Acosta, who may prefer the top bike on the grid that Ducati can offer. Still, with KTM’s improving form and Acosta’s market value for 2027, current VR46 links seem more PR than serious pursuit.
Ducati is also reported to be courting WorldSBK runner-up Nicolo Bulega to join its MotoGP testing team in 2026, possibly with a race seat in 2027. Bulega’s experience with Pirelli tires would be valuable for Ducati’s 2027 development program, similar to the reasoning behind Razgatlioglu’s rumored Honda interest.
Yamaha and KTM: Defending Seats Amid Uncertainty
Yamaha has one confirmed free seat at Pramac — Jack Miller’s. Miller, a four-time GP winner, signed late for 2025 but has impressed with solid results and development input. Yamaha is expected to extend his contract for another season. Miller has also been linked to a potential factory seat at Aprilia if Martin departs.
Yamaha has also been rumored to pursue Toprak Razgatlioglu for a Pramac ride, though a deadline set by Razgatlioglu’s management passed without a decision. Enea Bastianini has been mentioned as a possible Pramac candidate, but his struggles on KTM have likely hurt his chances. Bastianini could also fit into Aprilia’s plans given past links.
KTM faces significant uncertainty amid financial difficulties. All four of its riders — Pedro Acosta, Brad Binder, Enea Bastianini, and Maverick Viñales — hold contracts through 2026, but the company’s future is unclear. Acosta is central to the market, with Honda and VR46 Ducati interest, but his loyalty to KTM and recent bike improvements could keep him there next year.
Maverick Viñales has found a strong role leading KTM’s efforts, though Aprilia could entice him back if a vacancy appears. Viñales parted with Yamaha acrimoniously in 2021 but left KTM on better terms, so a return remains plausible.
Brad Binder’s contract through 2026 likely keeps him firmly tied to KTM, barring significant upheaval. Meanwhile, KTM’s financial woes cast a shadow over the entire lineup and their ability to retain or attract top talent.
