Shane van Gisbergen‘s first NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs campaign is proving to be a harsh test, as the rookie driver currently sits below the cutline heading into Saturday night’s elimination race at Bristol. Once comfortably inside the top 10, the Trackhouse Racing competitor now trails the final transfer spot by 15 points, placing his playoff hopes at serious risk.
The New Zealander’s 2025 season had been remarkable, highlighted by multiple victories on road courses such as Sonoma, Chicago, Mexico, and Watkins Glen. Entering the playoffs as the seventh seed with a 16-point cushion, van Gisbergen showed early promise. However, his lead has rapidly diminished, leaving Bristol—the high-banked short track—next on the docket, a venue where he has struggled and where his Cup experience is limited.
Early playoff races reveal van Gisbergen’s oval challenges
The playoffs kicked off with the Southern 500 at Darlington, a race where van Gisbergen’s inexperience on ovals became evident. He battled with balance and grip issues, compounded by a lengthy 54-second pit stop and a subsequent 35-second stop to address the problems. These setbacks resulted in a 32nd-place finish, leaving him barely inside the playoff cutline rather than building momentum.
At Gateway, the situation deteriorated further. Starting 18th, van Gisbergen quickly dropped to 25th but gained ground with a well-timed caution that moved him back to 12th on the restart. Despite a brief surge that hinted at a possible top-ten finish in Stage 1, he lost positions to Chase Elliott and then spun out on lap 156 after a tire puncture. A speeding penalty further stalled his effort, culminating in a 25th-place result and slipping him below the playoff bubble.
With two consecutive finishes outside the top 25, the rookie sensation who dominated road courses now faces an urgent uphill battle to adapt to short-track racing. Both Darlington and Gateway have made clear that his road-course expertise has not yet translated to success on ovals, and Bristol’s unforgiving nature will challenge him even more.
Bristol elimination scenario and van Gisbergen’s survival prospects
The Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol will reduce the Round of 16 field from 16 to 12. Currently, Austin Cindric holds the last advancing position with 2,064 points, while van Gisbergen lingers in 14th place, 15 points back. He trails behind teammate Ross Chastain by 19 points but leads Austin Dillon by 11. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman and Josh Berry are further behind him by 35 and 45 points, respectively. These margins create a precarious position for van Gisbergen.
To move forward, van Gisbergen must either claim a victory, which would automatically advance him, or rely on misfortunes among his rivals, especially Cindric and Chastain. While a points-based path is still mathematically possible, it remains unlikely because Cindric holds a slight points advantage and many of his competitors boast stronger experience and records at Bristol.
Van Gisbergen’s Bristol-specific resume is minimal. His only Cup start at the track earlier this summer resulted in a mechanical failure and a 38th-place finish. Additionally, his single Xfinity start at Bristol this year ended with an 18th-place result. Trackhouse Racing’s track record at Bristol is similarly modest, with an average finish of 20.1 in twelve starts and no top-five finishes. This lack of success at the “Last Great Colosseum” underscores the difficulty van Gisbergen faces in overcoming experienced oval veterans.
After the Gateway race, van Gisbergen acknowledged the gap between his current performance and the playoff demands, stating:
“Our pace has hugely improved over the last few months and now we’re a 15th to 20th place car, which is amazing after the start we had. But in the playoffs, you just need more. Don’t know if we’re just expecting too much out of ourselves for the level I am at, at the moment. We can go and get them 15ths and 20ths, but it’s not enough when you need stage points and top 10s.” (1:36 onwards)
Comparatively, van Gisbergen’s closest elimination rivals present far stronger Bristol statistics. Joss Berry, for example, carries an average finish of 17.7 and is regarded as a skilled short-track competitor. Alex Bowman has won pole positions in the past two Bristol Cup races and owns five top-10 finishes at the venue. Austin Dillon has recorded four top-10 finishes in 20 starts, and even Cindric, though less accomplished, has five Bristol starts. Their combined experience contrasts sharply with van Gisbergen’s limited oval background.
What lies ahead for van Gisbergen’s playoff journey
Saturday’s race will be pivotal for van Gisbergen, with a win guaranteeing survival and a continued playoff run filled with potential storylines for the rookie season. Without a victory, his chances to advance based on points are slim due to the experience and track knowledge of his competitors. Bristol’s demanding nature and van Gisbergen’s struggles on short ovals make it a likely spot for his playoff campaign to end, unless he can deliver an exceptional performance against the odds.
As the Trackhouse Racing driver prepares for the challenge, the Bristol race will serve as a critical reflection of how quickly a driver can adapt from road-course dominance to the distinct disciplines of NASCAR short-track racing, where history suggests van Gisbergen’s rookie dream could meet its first major hurdle.
