Shane van Gisbergen has dominated recent NASCAR events, capturing decisive victories in Mexico City last month and sweeping both the Xfinity and Cup races at the Chicago Street Course just last week. As the NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Sonoma, with van Gisbergen holding pole position, the question emerges: which drivers can realistically challenge his supremacy at this next race?
Practice and Qualifying Insights Point to a Tough Challenge
During practice sessions at Sonoma, van Gisbergen demonstrated strong pace but was briefly outpaced in single-lap speeds by A.J. Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs, who qualified fifth and sixth, respectively. Despite these quick times, Sonoma’s race history suggests that sustaining consistent speed over longer green-flag runs will be critical to victory. In this area, van Gisbergen’s endurance stood out, as he posted the fastest averages over 10 and 15-lap runs, confirming his ability to maintain strong performance beyond short bursts.
Van Gisbergen’s teammate Ross Chastain appeared as the closest competitor during longer runs. Driving the No. 1 Trackhouse Chevrolet, Chastain qualified fourth and was only two-tenths slower than van Gisbergen over a 10-lap average. However, that gap widened to nearly four-tenths during a 15-lap stint, signaling van Gisbergen’s greater stamina across race conditions. In addition to Chastain, Christopher Bell also proved competitive, ranking third on the 10-lap averages and rising to second place over 15 laps, despite qualifying 10th on the grid.
Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson as Possible Contenders
Ty Gibbs remains an intriguing figure in the Sonoma challenge. He consistently appeared in the top five for both 10-lap and 15-lap average speeds and has shown he can stay close to van Gisbergen in recent races. He finished second to van Gisbergen last week in Chicago and pushed the pace in Mexico City until a mid-race caution affected his position. However, Gibbs has yet to claim a win in his 106 NASCAR Cup Series starts, which could weigh on his confidence and momentum going into Sonoma.
Kyle Larson presents another strong factor to watch. The Hendrick Motorsports driver, who is the defending winner at Sonoma, recorded fourth fastest 10-lap averages and placed fifth in single-lap speeds, although his qualifying effort ranked only 11th overall. Larson’s experience and prior success at this track make him a serious threat for a strong showing this weekend.
Drivers with Strong Sonoma Records but Fewer Practice Highlights
Several drivers with proven Sonoma track records may not have stood out in practice or qualifying but could influence the race outcome. Chris Buescher has posted the best average finishes at Sonoma in the Next Gen car era, with three consecutive top-five finishes (second, fourth, and third) in recent years. Despite limited showings during this weekend’s sessions—16th in practice, no extensive runs, and qualifying 14th—Buescher’s consistent performance at Sonoma warrants attention.
Chase Elliott and Michael McDowell are others to watch closely. Elliott has yet to win at Sonoma but holds four top-five and six top-ten finishes in eight starts there. Although qualifying 13th, Elliott’s road-course speed this year suggests he could improve his position on race day. Meanwhile, McDowell was a major contender at Chicago, leading the most laps before suffering a mechanical failure. With an excellent Sonoma history—third, seventh, and second-place finishes in recent years—McDowell’s quiet Saturday, ending with 15th on the grid after a spin in practice, may not reflect his potential on Sunday.
Strong Competition Sets the Stage for a Dramatic Sonoma Race
As the NASCAR Cup Series moves into the Sonoma event with Shane van Gisbergen firmly in control after recent victories, drivers like Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson, and others stand ready to mount a challenge. The varied strengths among them—whether in single-lap speed, long-run pace, or track history—promise an intense and unpredictable contest.
The race at Sonoma will test not only raw speed but also the ability to manage tire wear, fuel consumption, and strategy during long green-flag runs. Given van Gisbergen’s demonstrated endurance and momentum, he enters as a clear favorite. Nonetheless, drivers with strong experience at Sonoma or those showing significant pace in practice could spoil a repeat victory and shake up the standings once again in this competitive NASCAR Cup season.
“Kyle Larson says SVG will be ‘dominant’ if he can figure out NASCAR ovals” —Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports Driver
“Shane van Gisbergen “shaking” after NASCAR Cup pole at Sonoma” —Unattributed
