Shane van Gisbergen’s rookie NASCAR Cup Series season in 2025 has been a difficult adjustment, with a steep learning curve evident from the outset. Despite early success in lower tiers—including a win at the 2023 Chicago Street Course and strong performances in the Xfinity Series last year—his full-time Cup schedule has proven more demanding, testing his consistency across different types of tracks and competition levels.
The Shane van Gisbergen NASCAR Cup Series season has seen marked struggles, but with upcoming road-course races, there remains hope for a significant turnaround. His improvement potential is tied to his unique skill set, which may still propel him into playoff contention despite the disappointing early results.
Performance Struggles Through the First Half of 2025
Van Gisbergen’s results in the 2025 season are well below expectations based on his prior form. In 2024, his average Driver Rating in the Cup Series hovered around 64.7 over 12 starts, near the series average of approximately 70, and an even stronger 76.9 in 33 Xfinity races. However, his rating has fallen to 48.1 across 15 races this year, placing him 33rd out of 36 full-time drivers.
On the track, this decline reflects in race outcomes as well: no wins, no top five finishes, just one top-ten, and an average finish of 25.3. His 18th-place finish at Michigan stands out as one of his better efforts, though metrics like Driver Rating (24th) and average running position (28th) suggest he was less competitive than his position indicates. Overall, he sits 33rd in the 2025 points standings.
Road Course Proficiency Remains a Bright Spot
Van Gisbergen’s background as a road-course specialist has continued to shine, even if in limited appearances this season. His lone road race at COTA about 15 weeks ago showcased his strengths: he led 23 of 95 laps, finished in the top five during the first two stages, and posted a 120.5 Driver Rating—the second highest in that race—ultimately finishing sixth. This contrasts sharply with his struggles on other track types.
Challenges on Ovals and Drafting Tracks Undermine Consistency
Expectations that van Gisbergen could adapt well to the drafting and traditional oval tracks have not materialized. His average Driver Ratings on these tracks remain below 50, ranking him near the bottom among peers—fourth worst on ovals and third worst on drafting tracks. Given that 12 of the 15 races so far occurred on these types of courses, this has heavily impacted his overall season performance.
Short tracks, anticipated as a potential weak point, have proven especially difficult. Van Gisbergen’s average rating of 28.3 across the Martinsville and Bristol races is the lowest among Cup drivers this year, and it is tracking as one of the worst short-track performances since 2005, making these outings particularly concerning.
Upcoming Road Course Races Offer Opportunities for a Season Revival
Despite the rough start, the next stretch of races could be pivotal for van Gisbergen. Three of the next five Cup Series events are on road courses—a setting where he is arguably unmatched. The upcoming competitions in Mexico City, Chicago Street Course, and Sonoma align with van Gisbergen’s strengths, offering a chance to leverage his road racing expertise. Additionally, Watkins Glen remains a potential opportunity later in the season, where he previously earned a second-place finish in his only start there.
Mexico City’s Viva Mexico 250 – his next race – is particularly promising. As a new track to the Cup Series, van Gisbergen’s history of quickly adapting to unfamiliar circuits could provide an advantage. Statistical analysis rates him as the most likely winner based on his road-course pedigree. His prior win at Chicago and Sonoma further solidify his credentials as a top competitor on these tracks.
The Playoff System Could Reward a Breakout Performance
The NASCAR playoff format strongly emphasizes race victories, meaning that one exceptional performance on an upcoming road course could instantly redeem van Gisbergen’s inconsistent season and secure him a place in the playoffs. This structure favors drivers like him, whose specialized skills can yield sudden improvements, turning a struggling year into a potentially successful campaign.
Van Gisbergen’s unique capability to dominate road courses makes him a serious candidate to engineer a dramatic midseason turnaround. With multiple favorable events approaching, he has a realistic chance to reset his trajectory and prove that his rookie Cup season is far from over.
Van Gisbergen’s Potential to Reignite His 2025 Season
Although Shane van Gisbergen’s rookie campaign in the Cup Series has been rocky, his proven talent on road courses sets him apart. With key upcoming road races complementing his skill set and a playoff system that rewards winning, the 2025 season still holds significant promise for a strong finish. If he can capitalize on these opportunities, van Gisbergen could shift the narrative from rookie struggles to late-season success, making his journey one to watch closely.
