Shane van Gisbergen is navigating his first full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series, following a promising run in the Xfinity Series last year where he clinched three victories and placed twelfth overall. Despite achieving just one top-10 finish in his seven Cup starts so far, accomplished at the Circuit of the Americas—a road course—the legendary Kurt Busch remains optimistic about van Gisbergen’s potential to excel on ovals, predicting a win by 2026.
Kurt Busch emphasizes Van Gisbergen’s adaptation to the NASCAR culture, anticipating significant progress on worn oval tracks like Las Vegas, Texas, and Homestead-Miami. These tracks are known for providing better grip, a critical factor that could benefit a rookie like Van Gisbergen. Kurt explains that worn-out ovals give drivers the ability to better feel the car’s dynamics, unlike fresh asphalt where any slip can lead to a disastrous run.
Busch is eager to witness Van Gisbergen’s continuous exposure to oval tracks, believing that this experience will accelerate his growth in NASCAR. This positive outlook is grounded in Van Gisbergen’s prior experience in the Supercars Series, where the cars bear similarities to NASCAR’s Next Gen vehicles, rendering him more familiar with their handling and features.
On NASCAR tracks, drivers must adeptly manage downforce because of the high speeds, often approaching 180 mph while steering through turns with a controlled drift. Contrastingly, road courses impose fewer aerodynamic challenges since high speeds are confined to straightaways, thereby lessening the aerodynamic complexities.
In a comparison, Kurt Busch likens Shane van Gisbergen’s shift to NASCAR to that of Juan Pablo Montoya, who initially excelled in road courses before mastering the art of oval racing. Montoya later rose to prominence on both track types, securing victories at Sonoma and Watkins Glen before proving competitive on ovals as well.
An adjustment in the racing dynamics has been the transaxle gearbox position, akin to what van Gisbergen used in Supercars, a feature some veteran NASCAR drivers grapple with. Busch notes this advantage that Shane brings, potentially smoothing his NASCAR transition.
Veteran drivers like Kyle Busch, Kurt’s own brother, have faced setbacks, witnessing a dip in performance with the Next Gen cars compared to the previous Gen6 era. Kyle recorded 35 wins and an average finish of 12th in the Gen6 era, yet his rank has dropped to a 16.7 average with only four wins in the Gen7 era. Similarly, RFK Racing owner Brad Keselowski has seen his average finish slip from 12.4 to 16.8, highlighting the adjustments required even for seasoned racers.
With his inherent skill set and track understanding, Shane van Gisbergen is seen as a rising star likely to conquer oval racing challenges sooner than later. While his journey is only beginning, the anticipation of his development into a formidable NASCAR Cup Series competitor makes for an exciting future, carrying lessons from past racers and predictions from veterans like Kurt Busch.
