As the 2025 NASCAR regular season concludes, many in the racing community are making predictions about the upcoming playoffs. Denny Hamlin has shared his views on who could face elimination in the Round of 16, including rookie sensation Shane Van Gisbergen. Hamlin expects tough times ahead for Van Gisbergen in this critical early stage of the postseason.
Drivers Hamlin Sees Falling Short in the First Round
During a recent episode of the Actions Detrimental podcast, Hamlin identified Austin Dillon, Josh Berry, Austin Cindric, and Shane Van Gisbergen as those likely to be eliminated in the Round of 16. He pointed to the tougher competition from drivers like William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell, who offer more speed and consistency.
“I’ll say Dillon, Berry, Cindric and SVG…(On SVG’s playoff points not being enough) Versus the guys like Bowman, Reddick, Logano, Chastain, Bubba. I think they all overtake, just on speed.” —Denny Hamlin on which four drivers will be eliminated first from the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Playoffs
The selections for Dillon, Berry, and Cindric are not unexpected, given their current standings. Dillon and Berry both sit well below the cutoff line for the Round of 12, while Cindric holds only a slight advantage, putting them all at risk of elimination if their performance falters on the remaining tracks.
Impact of the Playoff Schedule on Van Gisbergen’s Chances
Hamlin emphasized the role of the Round of 16’s schedule in his prediction, noting that Van Gisbergen’s relative inexperience on certain tracks could be a major hurdle. The upcoming rounds include Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol—three challenging circuits that have proven difficult for the No. 88 team and for Van Gisbergen specifically.
Van Gisbergen’s record at these venues supports Hamlin’s concerns. Earlier this season, he finished 20th at Darlington and struggled to 38th place at Bristol. Perhaps most notably, the 2025 Cup rookie has never raced at Gateway (World Wide Technology Raceway) in the Cup Series, introducing further uncertainty about his performance there.
Van Gisbergen’s 2025 Season Performance
- Points: 2,022
- Wins: 4
- Top 10 finishes: 5
- Top 5 finishes: 4
- Poles: 3
- DNFs: 3
- Laps led: 252 in 26 races
Despite these solid overall numbers, Van Gisbergen’s mixed results on certain high-stakes tracks place him in a precarious position as the playoffs begin.
Prospects Beyond the Round of 16
Should Van Gisbergen manage to survive the initial elimination, he would advance to the Round of 12 where the Charlotte ROVAL awaits on October 5. This more complex course might offer a better opportunity for the rookie to showcase his skills and potentially secure a spot in the Round of 8. However, his immediate focus remains on overcoming the tough trio of tracks that define the first round of the playoffs.
Significance of Early Playoff Performance
The Round of 16 will test Van Gisbergen against some of the sport’s more experienced and faster competitors, and failing to advance could mean an early end to an otherwise promising rookie campaign. Denny Hamlin’s projections highlight the challenges new drivers face in mastering various track types under playoff pressure, underscoring the importance of versatility and speed in NASCAR’s elimination rounds.
