Denny Hamlin NASCAR skepticism is growing amid Joe Gibbs Racing’s (JGR) current strong playoff performance. Despite JGR’s apparent dominance in the early playoff rounds, Hamlin voices concern about the team’s ability to sustain momentum through to the final Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway, citing unpredictable variables and stiff competition.
Assessing Joe Gibbs Racing’s Current Playoff Performance
<pEarlier in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, Joe Gibbs Racing appeared to regain its footing after a challenging previous season. While Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. exited the playoffs earlier than hoped, Hamlin, along with teammate Christopher Bell, remained contenders deep into the championship race. Bell’s campaign was hampered by a penalty at Martinsville, and Hamlin’s inconsistent finishes prevented him from qualifying for the final round.
Meanwhile, rival Joey Logano of Team Penske managed a remarkable turnaround last year, winning a grueling five-overtime race and squeezing through to claim his third Cup Series championship despite near-elimination in the Round of 8. This comeback underlines the volatility of the playoffs and fuels Hamlin’s doubts about his own team’s playoff prospects, even in the face of recent success.
Hamlin’s Skepticism Despite JGR’s Strong Performances
Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have shown resilience and speed in the Round of 16. Chase Briscoe successfully defended his Southern 500 title after switching manufacturers, exemplifying adaptability. Hamlin notched his first Victory at Gateway, demonstrating his competitive form. Christopher Bell faced engine troubles that pushed him down the standings at Gateway but responded impressively with a strategic victory at Bristol, where tire wear and race tactics played a huge role. Even Ty Gibbs, who missed the postseason, impressed by leading 201 laps at Bristol before encountering pit road issues and a crash with Austin Hill’s Chevrolet.
Despite this string of strong performances, Hamlin remains wary of complacency. The 44-year-old driver stressed that each playoff round resets the competition and cautioned about the unpredictability of the next stages. He explained during an ‘Actions Detrimental’ podcast episode,
“But we reset every round, guys.”
– Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Driver
He further emphasized the decisive nature of the final race at Phoenix Raceway, where ultimately the championship is decided, saying,
“The championship runs through Phoenix, it doesn’t run through JGR…One race, and anything can happen, anything at all.”
– Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Driver
Hamlin’s remarks highlight the pressures and uncertainties inherent in NASCAR playoff racing, where consistency alone does not guarantee a championship. His stance underscores the need for sustained excellence and the dangers of relying solely on past results.
Evaluating Team Penske as a Formidable Competitor
Joe Gibbs Racing’s true test might come from their long-standing rival Team Penske. With drivers such as Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney regularly delivering clutch performances, Penske has remained a dominant force over recent seasons, often outperforming expectations. Observing Logano’s championship-winning run last year, Hamlin acknowledged,
“So we’ve seen someone not talked about all year win the race, win the championship. That’s just where it is. I understand it’s a great narrative and I’m very, very happy for JGR…but in one race, who knows? We gotta get there first. And these next two rounds have some bumpy racetracks.”
– Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Driver
His comments underline how any driver or team can seize the opportunity when it matters most, reinforcing the idea that previous momentum does not guarantee success. The upcoming races at challenging circuits will test not only JGR’s speed but also its adaptability and resilience.
Challenges Facing Hamlin’s No. 11 Team Ahead
Aside from the external competition and playoff format pressures, Hamlin’s own pit crew is impacted by setbacks that may affect his performance in upcoming races. Known for executing fast, reliable pit stops, the No. 11 team boasts a reputation for efficiency, evident in Hamlin’s successful races in 2023 and 2024. However, an incident at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race drastically complicated matters. On lap 385, Hamlin’s car collided with AJ Allmendinger’s, resulting in the right-front wheel detaching and rolling away, which led to a two-lap penalty.
Adding to the trouble, NASCAR imposed suspensions on two critical members of Hamlin’s pit crew—front tire changer Austin Maloney and jackman Joel Bouagnon—that will sideline them for the next two events at New Hampshire and Kansas. However, NASCAR’s rule changes in 2025 allow for the deferral of such penalties. Mike Forde, NASCAR’s managing director of racing communications, clarified:
“What we did at the beginning of the year was we said that if there is a suspension that’s not a behavioral penalty, that the suspension can be deferred without an appeal request for the next event following the issuance of the penalty. So if the 11 team would like their two crew members to be part of the New Hampshire race, they can request a deferral. The appeals administrator would be the one who does grant that or not grant that. There is a pretty much 100% success rate (of granting the deferral).”
– Mike Forde, NASCAR Managing Director of Racing Communications
This flexibility offers JGR a chance to retain their key pit crew personnel for one more race, potentially stabilizing Hamlin’s setup during a critical playoff phase. Nonetheless, the absence expected at Kansas and the Round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Roval remains a concern heading into the playoff’s decisive stages.
What Lies Ahead for Denny Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing
As the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs continue, Denny Hamlin’s evident skepticism highlights the complex and high-pressure environment JGR faces. While the team has regained a competitive edge in early rounds, Hamlin’s wariness reflects the harsh realities of playoff racing, where a single mistake or mishap can undo a season’s worth of effort. The looming loss of vital pit crew members further complicates their path, underscoring the importance of precision and teamwork beyond the drivers themselves.
Hamlin’s cautious outlook serves as both a warning and motivation for the team to maintain focus, adapt swiftly, and perform under severe pressure in upcoming races at demanding tracks like New Hampshire, Kansas, and the Charlotte Roval. Ultimately, while JGR’s successes place them among championship favorites, their ability to overcome internal setbacks and rival threats will be put to the test with the championship battle centered at Phoenix Raceway.
