As the 2026 Formula 1 season approaches, questions arise about which drivers will secure new contracts and who might lose their seats. This uncertainty affects many, including Liam Lawson, whose future in F1 appears unstable following his recent displacement at Racing Bulls. Lawson’s position exemplifies the broader risk for drivers facing contract renewals amid fierce competition.
Current Contract Situations and Team Changes Increase Pressure on Drivers
Half of the current F1 grid will be out of contract by the end of this season, involving notable names such as Fernando Alonso and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who are entering the final year of their deals. Racing Bulls stands out as the only team to introduce a rookie this year, with Arvid Lindblad poised for his debut at the Australian Grand Prix. However, driver reshuffles can occur rapidly, as seen last season when Liam Lawson was replaced by Yuki Tsunoda just two races in, and Franco Colapinto took Jack Doohan’s place before the race at Imola. These moves suggest teams are willing to make mid-season changes if performance expectations are not met.
Fans Identify Franco Colapinto as the Driver Most at Risk of Being Dropped
Among F1 followers surveyed by F1Oversteer through its TalkingPoints feature, opinions split mainly between Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson as the drivers most vulnerable to losing their seats during the 2026 season. One fan commented,
“I still believe that Franco Colapinto brings in sponsor money. I do not see him as a F1 worthy driver. Meanwhile, the 2025 F2 champion sits and waits.”
Other responses were concise, such as “Colapinto,” and “Lawson,” with one user dismissing Lawson’s risk by saying, “You’re dreaming, mate.” Another fan warned,
“I think that, unfortunately, Franco has got to be careful this year, although Alpine would be taking a risk replacing him with Paul Aron!”
Despite Lawson’s struggles in pre-season testing, some fans defended him:
“Not sure, could be anyone who can’t get to grips with their cars, Lawson definitely not!!”
Fans Discuss Potential Performances and Challenges at the Australian Grand Prix
Speculation about who will succeed at the Australian Grand Prix continued among fans. One noted,
“He’s improving every outing, not Lindblad, quick for a rookie. Can’t be Stroll unless his dad sells up. Colapinto is also getting better.”
Another supporter highlighted Isack Hadjar’s potential, stating,
“Some drivers just take more time. Hadjar will do an alright job to retain his seat at Red Bull; for me, it’s a lottery.”
Different opinions were shared regarding Hadjar and Lawson, including this:
“Hadjar will be the only one. Lawson should say bye to RB. I think he would improve in a team with less drama. Colapinto is a wildcard. Yeah!”
Meanwhile, optimism about Colapinto’s capabilities emerged with:
“Knowing how Alpine are switching to Mercedes power units, Colapinto should be able to perform decently this season, and get at least one point. Hadjar may be losing his seat mid-season, mostly speculation due to the Red Bull 2nd seat curse.”
Possible Replacements for Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson if Dropped
Franco Colapinto’s contract situation remains precarious, as he was initially signed on a rolling deal after replacing Jack Doohan last year. Although Flavio Briatore denied reports that Colapinto was racing on a race-by-race agreement, his future was only confirmed close to the end of the season. Briatore indicated that Alpine considered Paul Aron as an alternative last year, but ultimately Colapinto was retained despite lacking points. Heading into the Australian Grand Prix, Colapinto faces significant pressure, with Aron appearing as the most likely candidate to replace him if results do not improve.
Liam Lawson faces a different challenge at Racing Bulls, as a more experienced substitute is available. Yuki Tsunoda, serving as reserve driver for Red Bull and Racing Bulls this season, remains eager to return to full-time competition and is presumably ready to step in if Lawson fails to meet expectations.
Impact and What Lies Ahead for Drivers on the Brink
The looming risk of losing a race seat creates a tense atmosphere for drivers like Liam Lawson and Franco Colapinto who are navigating contract renewals amid unpredictable team decisions. Their performances early in the 2026 season, particularly at key races like the Australian Grand Prix, may well determine their futures in Formula 1. Teams such as Racing Bulls and Alpine are balancing the potential sponsorship benefits, driver talent, and strategic considerations as they decide whether to stick with current drivers or look towards available replacements like Paul Aron and Yuki Tsunoda.
