Max Verstappen surprised many when he predicted in Hungary that he wouldn’t win another Formula 1 race this season. However, since then, he has claimed two victories in the following three Grands Prix, sparking fresh discussions about whether he remains a genuine contender in the 2024 Max Verstappen title fight. This unexpected revival places the spotlight back on Red Bull Racing’s strategies and Verstappen’s ability to leverage recent car upgrades.
Factors Behind Verstappen’s Recent Wins
Verstappen’s wins at Monza and Baku have reignited his challenge for the drivers’ championship, prompting questions about his prospects against rivals, particularly McLaren, for the 2025 title. Recent performance graphs from PACETEQ indicate that Verstappen demonstrated the fastest race pace twice in recent weeks—an achievement previously seen only at Suzuka, Imola, and Jeddah, though he missed out on a win in Saudi Arabia due to a penalty.
According to team insiders, several key improvements have contributed to this upswing. Red Bull has shifted its approach from strictly data-driven decisions to placing greater emphasis on driver feedback. Verstappen himself has pointed out that the team’s increased understanding of the RB21’s limitations now helps pinpoint the car’s optimal setup window, even if it is narrow. A significant technical factor in this progress has been the introduction of a new floor upgrade at Monza. Helmut Marko explained that this enhancement not only boosted performance but also improved overall car balance, slightly enlarging its effective operating range.
Assessing Track-Specific Performance
After the victory in Monza, analysts questioned whether the improvements were limited to the specific track. Red Bull Sporting Director Laurent Mekies addressed this following the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
I think we probably feel today that some of the good stuff we have seen in Monza, we found here again,
Mekies remarked.
In Baku, there are only slow-speed corners, and it’s very low downforce. That combination worked very well for us. It’s a different equation compared to Monza, so that’s the good news for us.
Analysis of race pace in Baku validated Mekies’ statements, showing Verstappen commanded a comfortable lead of over three-tenths of a second per lap over George Russell. However, it is important to note that some data may not fully reflect McLaren and Ferrari’s capabilities, as both teams struggled in qualifying and spent much of the race running in turbulent air, which limited their chance to display true pace.
Compared to George Russell, I think it’s relatively possible to read,
Mekies added.
I think the gap was probably a couple of tenths [per lap], but nothing more than that.
McLaren is much more difficult to judge, because they were not finding any free air. We have seen them extremely fast at some points on Friday morning, Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. We’ll probably never know what their real pace is in the race, but there’s certainly no room to relax for us.
The Upcoming Singapore GP: A Severe Test for Red Bull
Mekies’ warning about the need to maintain focus is particularly relevant as the Formula 1 circus heads to Singapore, a weekend expected to push Red Bull’s strengths and weaknesses to the limit. The street circuit’s bumpy surface and high-downforce demands present a challenging environment that does not favor Red Bull cars, which have struggled with such conditions in the past.
Marko added with a touch of humor, acknowledging Red Bull’s difficulties:
It’s not only high downforce, it’s also bloody hot there, which our car doesn’t seem to like so much. So it will be the real benchmark to see where we are.
The high temperatures in Singapore will potentially exacerbate issues with overheating rear tires, an area where Red Bull has shown vulnerability. In contrast, McLaren has historically managed heat and tire degradation better, which in earlier races such as Monza and Baku, was not a decisive factor due to reduced tire wear but will certainly come into play in Singapore.
You go to Singapore, you move a bit your equations,
Mekies explained.
You keep the slow-speed corners, but you go to maximum downforce. We have been struggling quite a lot in Budapest, and even before Budapest. Also, a much hotter track, and we know how sensitive we are to this aspect, but not only us, almost the whole field.
Reflecting on the Budapest Setback
Considering Mekies referenced Budapest as a recent low point for Red Bull, it is important to revisit that data. The Hungaroring, a high-downforce circuit, saw Red Bull lose over a second per lap to McLaren, representing one of its biggest deficits in race pace all season. The only exceptions were Austria and Great Britain, where peculiar circumstances—such as Verstappen’s early exit in Austria due to a collision involving Andrea Kimi Antonelli—skewed results.
Budapest’s struggles amplify the challenge Red Bull faces in Singapore, which similarly demands high downforce and operates in challenging conditions. This context calls for caution before concluding that Verstappen is firmly back in the 2024 title fight after wins on low-downforce tracks. The Singapore Grand Prix serves as a critical litmus test for both the driver and the team.
I guess it’s probably fair to say that we have unlocked a bit of performance out of the car after Budapest, regardless of our issues there,
Mekies stated.
I don’t think that Singapore will be a repeat of Budapest, so I’m more confident than that. Is it going to be enough to fight for the win? Honestly, it’s impossible to say. But it won’t be like Budapest.
Marko had previously indicated that Red Bull understood the root of their Budapest difficulties but was constrained by parc fermé rules from making necessary car adjustments before the race weekend.
Singapore’s Role in Determining Verstappen’s Championship Chances
Mekies underscored the importance of Singapore beyond its immediate challenges, highlighting its historical difficulty for Red Bull and Verstappen’s track record without a victory there.
We take the challenge of Singapore, it’s a track that’s been challenging for the team many, many years,
Mekies commented.
In the context of what we are trying to see, it’s very important to see what suddenly doesn’t work anymore there, and what still does.
The race weekend will not only allow external observers to evaluate Verstappen’s viability in this year’s title race but also constitute a decisive internal benchmark for Red Bull Racing. The team will be seeking clarity on the extent their recent upgrades translate to a well-rounded package rather than track-specific advantages.
In the 2023 Singapore GP, Lando Norris dominated under the floodlights with Verstappen finishing second, 20 seconds adrift of the Briton, adding context to the tight battle expected this season.
