Jenson Button predicts Lewis Hamilton’s crucial 2026 exit year

As Lewis Hamilton begins his second year with Ferrari, former McLaren teammate Jenson Button has expressed serious concerns about the seven-time world champion’s future, especially with the new Formula 1 regulations coming into effect in 2026. Hamilton’s difficult debut season at Ferrari has prompted Button to forecast that 2026 could be a pivotal moment for the driver’s career.

Hamilton’s challenging 2025 season and hopes for improvement under new rules

At 41 years old, Lewis Hamilton is preparing to bounce back after ending the 2025 season sixth in the drivers’ championship and finishing without a single podium for the first time in his career. Ferrari itself placed fourth in the Constructors’ Championship, falling short of their championship ambitions. Button remains hopeful that Hamilton’s direct involvement in developing Ferrari’s 2026 car, together with major regulation changes, may rejuvenate his performance.

The changes Hamilton is hoping to capitalize on include alterations to power units, new hybrid engines, and significant aerodynamic modifications—most notably the complete removal of the drag reduction system (DRS). Financial rules have also shifted, increasing the operational cost ceiling, which Ferrari expects will improve their competitiveness and chances at the title.

Jenson Button reflects on witnessing Hamilton’s struggle and the importance of 2026 for his career

Button, who raced alongside Hamilton at McLaren between 2010 and 2012, admitted the past season was difficult to watch. Ahead of the 2026 season kickoff in Australia on March 8, he told Sky Sports News,

“It was tough, I have to say, watching Lewis in 2025,”

adding,

“You know, I was his team-mate for three years. I understand how good he is. So it was really tough to see him struggle with the team.”

Button noted the emotional toll it appeared to take on Hamilton, saying,

“And you could see it in his face, how much it was hurting. You kind of forget everything else he’s achieved at that moment in time, because you just see the pain.”

Hope rests on Hamilton’s role in car design and building confidence within Ferrari

Despite last season’s setbacks, Button is optimistic about Hamilton’s potential resurgence, largely because of his anticipated input on the design and development of the 2026 car. He believes this influence will help tailor the car’s performance to Hamilton’s strengths. Button emphasized,

“Because he’s gonna have input in how the car is designed and have confidence in him taking it in a direction that works for him. So I hope to see that. We want to see Ferrari at the front, and we all want to see Lewis fighting at the front again.”

This optimism aligns with Ferrari’s broader goal of returning as genuine title contenders as F1 embraces a new era of regulations.

Comparison with Charles Leclerc highlights Hamilton’s uphill battle at Ferrari

Last season, Charles Leclerc, Hamilton’s teammate, secured seven podium finishes and outperformed Hamilton in the drivers’ standings. Leclerc’s familiarity with the Ferrari environment likely played a key role in his success, which contrasts with Hamilton’s challenging adaptation period. Hamilton aims to overcome these obstacles with added experience at Maranello, hoping the extended time with Ferrari will lead to better results in 2026.

Potential crossroads: Button warns 2026 may determine Hamilton’s racing future

Button stressed the significance of the upcoming season for Hamilton’s career prospects. He acknowledged the difficulty of joining a new team and racing against established teammates,

“Jumping into another team against someone that’s been there for years is always difficult,”

but also highlighted Hamilton’s improved rapport and involvement within Ferrari, stating,

“But now he’s had time with the team, built good relationships, and is hopefully having a lot of input in the direction of the car and how it feels.

It’s an important year for him. If it doesn’t work this year, I don’t know if it is going to work again. This is the perfect opportunity for him to turn it around.”

This warning underscores the uncertainty surrounding Hamilton’s future, hinting that if progress isn’t made in 2026, retirement could be imminent.

2026 regulations and what they mean for Formula 1’s evolving landscape

The 2026 rule changes mark a critical turning point for all teams and drivers, affecting powertrain technologies and aerodynamics profoundly. With the elimination of the DRS and introduction of newer hybrid engines, teams face fresh challenges in adapting their cars for optimal performance. Financially, the increased operational budget cap allows for greater technical development.

For Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton, these regulations represent both an opportunity and a test. Success under these conditions could restore Ferrari’s dominance and rejuvenate Hamilton’s career just as he nears the twilight years of his racing life.