Kyle Busch’s average finish dropped to 18.3 in 2024 and slipped further to 17.9 in 2025, marking the lowest points in his 23-year Cup career. Despite the challenges faced by his team, Richard Childress Racing, Busch has consistently demonstrated stronger performances on road courses compared to most oval tracks. This gives him some confidence as he prepares for the upcoming race at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) during the 2026 season.
Strong Track Records and Past COTA Results
Busch secured a ninth-place finish at COTA in 2024 and improved to a top-five result there in 2025. He led 42 laps on road courses last season, second only to Shane van Gisbergen’s 301 laps led. Busch remains one of NASCAR’s most skilled road course drivers, holding four Cup Series wins on such tracks—two at Sonoma Raceway and two at Watkins Glen International. His top finish in 2025 was at COTA, where he stayed near the front late in the race, emphasizing his readiness for the upcoming Sunday event.
Impact of Increased Horsepower and Tire Management
NASCAR has boosted horsepower on short tracks and road courses to 750, and Busch expects tire management to play a crucial role under these conditions.
Tires are going to be more paramount this weekend,
Busch said, according to Speedway Media.
You might see guys, if there’s a late caution with 10 to go, that got three or four laps old tires might come, pit, and try to drive back through the field and hope that the front guys burn their stuff up. Fresher tires more times than not, especially with more horsepower, you’re going to want them.
Influence of Tire Strategy on Race Outcomes at COTA
Last year, tire strategy was a deciding factor in Busch’s performance. He started eighth and cycled to the lead six times, holding first place with six laps remaining while under pressure from Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Tyler Reddick. However, a caution caused by Busch’s teammate Austin Dillon erased his lead and forced a restart. At that crucial moment, Busch’s tires were two laps older than some competitors’, which significantly impacted his grip and speed.
When the race resumed, Bell had better traction and acceleration out of corners, allowing him to overtake Busch, who ultimately finished fifth. This outcome was particularly frustrating given Busch’s strong pace throughout the event.
How New Conditions Could Shape this Year’s Race
Busch expects tire degradation to have an even greater effect this season with the increased horsepower. Fresh tires can dramatically improve speed and car control, affecting braking points, corner entry and exit, and acceleration. Over a short run, this advantage can outweigh starting position and be critical in determining final results at COTA.
