Despite strong results at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, both Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda face the possibility of losing their places in Red Bull’s driver lineup for the 2026 Formula 1 season. Former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher has suggested that Red Bull could replace them with new talent, potentially promoting Arvid Lindblad and Alex Dunne to the junior Racing Bulls team.
Lawson and Tsunoda switched seats early in the 2025 season and showed marked improvement in Baku, with Lawson securing his best career finish of fifth place after starting third. Tsunoda finished closely behind in sixth, marking the highest result of his time with Red Bull, despite challenges on fresher tires and DRS attempts.
Detailed Look at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix Performances
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix highlighted notable growth for both drivers, with Lawson defending his position effectively against formidable competitors, including Tsunoda, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, and Charles Leclerc. Tsunoda’s inability to overtake Lawson, even with strategic advantages, underscored Lawson’s strong race pace.
Amid these developments, speculation intensifies around future promotions within Red Bull’s driver hierarchy. Isack Hadjar is widely expected to move up to partner Max Verstappen in Red Bull’s senior team next year, while standout Formula 2 driver Arvid Lindblad may fill Hadjar’s spot at Racing Bulls. This shift would create a vacant seat alongside Lindblad, putting Lawson and Tsunoda both in contention.
Interest in Alex Dunne, a McLaren junior currently competing in F2, has grown. Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko has reportedly initiated discussions with Dunne and his team, although these meetings appear preliminary rather than indicative of a confirmed 2026 deal. Given McLaren’s willingness to release junior drivers to pursue other opportunities—exemplified when Gabriel Bortoleto left for Sauber’s 2025 F1 seat—Dunne’s move to Red Bull’s system remains plausible.
Ralf Schumacher’s Perspective on Driver Retention and Prospects
Speaking on the Backstage Pit Lane podcast, Ralf Schumacher expressed doubts about Tsunoda and Lawson securing spots for 2026, despite their improved form in Baku. Schumacher emphasized the possibility of Lindblad partnering with Dunne at Racing Bulls, potentially leaving both current drivers sidelined.
Schumacher stated,
“Before Baku, I would have said that both Tsunoda and Lawson were out for next season.”
He added,
“If you want to give young drivers a chance, it will still be very difficult for both of them, because Hadjar could go to Red Bull and you could possibly get Alex Dunne from McLaren and also promote Arvid Lindblad to the Racing Bulls.”
He further noted,
“That would certainly be an option. But the Racing Bulls’ expectations have also risen thanks to their good results.”
It would then be unfair if they didn’t keep any drivers with F1 experience.
— Ralf Schumacher, Former F1 Driver
Impact of Leadership Changes and Team Dynamics on Driver Futures
While Hadjar is widely seen as the front-runner to join Verstappen in the senior Red Bull team, Schumacher suggests that recent staff changes could influence Tsunoda’s chances of retention. Laurent Mekies, who replaced Christian Horner as Red Bull team principal and CEO in July, is believed to have brought a more personal approach that may improve Tsunoda’s standing within the team.
Schumacher explained,
“Tsunoda can drive and was also doing well in the Racing Bull before. The sharp handling of the Red Bull didn’t suit him. At times, Verstappen also struggled with it.”
He pointed out the performance gap, saying,
“Both were doing well in Baku. Nevertheless, there was a gap of over 30 seconds between them at the finish line. That’s a world of difference.”
He compared Tsunoda’s current pace to that of Sergio Perez when performing at a similar level, emphasizing that Tsunoda remains a potential candidate:
“At the moment, I would bet on Isack Hadjar [to secure a Red Bull seat for 2026]. But if the team thinks that Tsunoda is also a viable option and Tsunoda is getting closer to the car and vice versa, then that’s an option.”
Schumacher credited Mekies’s influence, saying,
“Laurent Mekies is doing a very good job with his human touch and he knows Tsunoda very well.”
You can see with the Racing Bulls what happens with Liam Lawson when you give him a little more time and the car becomes easier to drive.
— Ralf Schumacher, Former F1 Driver
What Lies Ahead for Red Bull’s Junior Drivers
As Red Bull prepares for the 2026 season, the fate of Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda remains uncertain despite their recent improved performances. The potential promotion of Isack Hadjar to the senior team, alongside Max Verstappen, will likely trigger a reshuffle within Red Bull’s junior driver lineup, possibly favoring newcomers like Arvid Lindblad and Alex Dunne.
Leadership changes under Laurent Mekies may influence driver retention decisions, especially concerning Tsunoda’s future, but the competition remains fierce. Lawson’s ability to adapt and improve could work in his favor if Red Bull opts to retain drivers with experience in F1. Ultimately, the team’s recruitment and management strategies will determine whether Tsunoda and Lawson continue within Red Bull’s racing ecosystem or make way for fresh talent.
