Wednesday, September 10, 2025
NASCARCup SeriesNASCAR Playoff Drama Heats Up at Bristol Motor Speedway This Weekend

NASCAR Playoff Drama Heats Up at Bristol Motor Speedway This Weekend

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturday, September 13, at 7:30 p.m. ET. This significant playoff race, featuring a 0.533-mile concrete oval track, covers 266.5 miles over 500 laps with three stages. Fans can watch the event live on FS1 starting at 7:30 p.m. ET or listen via PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR channel 90. The race boasts a total purse of $10,447,135, intensifying competition as drivers aim to advance in the playoffs.

Schedule of Events Leading to the Bristol Race

The weekend begins with several key NASCAR activities. On Thursday, September 11, NCTS Practice and Kennametal Pole Qualifying take place at 3 p.m. ET on FS2, followed by the ARCA Bush’s Beans 200 at 5:30 p.m. ET on FS1. Later, the NCTS UNOH 250 race starts at 8 p.m. ET on FS1, NRN, and SiriusXM.

Friday, September 12, features NXS Practice and Kennametal Pole Qualifying at 2 p.m. ET on The CW App, followed by NCS Practice and Busch Light Pole Qualifying at 4:30 p.m. ET on truTV, PRN, and SiriusXM. The Food City 300 race then airs at 7:30 p.m. ET on The CW, PRN, and SiriusXM.

NASCAR Cup Series
Image of: NASCAR Cup Series

Finally, Saturday’s main event begins with the NCS Bass Pro Shops Night Race at 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN, and SiriusXM.

Historic Context and Key Highlights of Bristol Motor Speedway

This weekend marks the 127th running of the NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol, excluding the three dirt races held between 2021 and 2023. Bristol is hosting its sixth playoff race, which serves as the elimination round for the Round of 16 in the playoffs. This storied track is known for intense racing and strategic competition.

Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have dominated recent Bristol events, combining to win six of the last nine races, including the last four, with each driver winning twice. Hamlin holds four career wins at Bristol, three of which have come in the last nine races, while Larson led an unprecedented 462 of 500 laps last September—the most laps led by a Hendrick Motorsports driver in a Cup race.

Larson also swept both stages in the last two Bristol races, leading a combined 873 laps and setting a record for the most laps led over two short-track races since 1972, when Bobby Allison led 903 laps at Bristol. Alex Bowman secured the pole position for the past two Bristol races, a feat last achieved by Rusty Wallace, who won three straight poles at Bristol between 1997 and 1998.

Racing Patterns and Track Statistics at Bristol

The spring Bristol race this year featured only four lead changes, the fewest since August 2008, and just three cautions, making it the quietest Bristol race in terms of cautions since August 1982. Remarkably, two of the last three Bristol races saw no drivers fail to finish due to accidents, breaking a streak of 78 consecutive races with at least one accident-related DNF dating back to 1983.

Last September’s event recorded only 36 caution laps, the fewest since April 1984. The track has not seen an overtime finish in the last 17 races, with the last overtime occurring in April 2015. A driver has swept both stages and won in each of the last four Bristol races, with Larson being the only driver to do so in back-to-back events.

Only two stages at Bristol in the stage era have been caution-free; one of these occurred last April. Generally, the driver who led the most laps won six of the last seven Bristol races, highlighting the importance of strong track control. The final green flag stretch in the last four races has been at least 121 laps, with the April race completing a 235-lap green flag run, the second longest in Bristol’s history behind a 291-lap streak in March 1980.

In terms of experience, every winner in the last 23 Bristol races had at least 200 Cup Series starts, underscoring the challenging nature of the track and the value of veteran skill.

Driver Performances and Trends at Bristol

Kyle Larson has consistently performed well at Bristol, finishing in the top 10 in 11 of his last 12 starts and reaching the top five in six races with Hendrick Motorsports. Other drivers with standout performances in the Next Gen car at Bristol include Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. Hendrick Motorsports has led 41% of the total laps raced here in the Next Gen era, with Larson accounting for the majority of those over two races.

Kyle Busch ranks fifth all-time in Bristol victories with eight wins but has struggled lately, finishing 14th or worse in his last six events. Ty Gibbs has led a personal best of 239 laps at the track and has led over 100 laps in two of the previous four races. Ryan Blaney has demonstrated consistent success on short tracks, finishing 11th or better in his last nine such races and winning twice recently.

Five drivers have accounted for the last 13 wins on short tracks: Denny Hamlin (4), Ryan Blaney (3), William Byron (2), Kyle Larson (2), and Austin Dillon (2). Meanwhile, Christopher Bell has yet to secure a top-10 finish in a night race during 2025 after previously maintaining a streak of nine straight finishes of sixth place or better in night contests. Erik Jones has shown night race strength, achieving four of his five top-10 finishes in 2025 under the lights.

Legacy Motor Club has provided the best finishes among non-playoff drivers in the postseason events so far.

Team and Manufacturer Performance Insights

Toyota recently achieved its 200th Cup Series win, with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch both tied for the most victories by Toyota drivers at 56 each. Joe Gibbs Racing has a strong playoff record, having won the opening two races of the playoffs five times. Hamlin, who won from the pole this season, became the fifth oldest driver in Cup history to do so, trailing only Mark Martin, Bill Elliott, Lee Petty, Geoff Bodine, and Cale Yarborough. He is also the third oldest driver to secure consecutive poles.

This season has seen six different drivers win races from the pole, a number higher than in the previous two seasons combined. Toyota drivers have led dominating laps in the playoffs, controlling 515 of 607 laps, and achieved impressive finishes, placing six of the top seven at Darlington and five of the top eight at St. Louis.

Bubba Wallace has led 343 laps in 2025, marking his most laps led in a single season, while Chase Briscoe has increased his career laps led substantially with 551 in the last 12 races. The diversity of competitive drivers and the depth of the field continues to heighten the intensity of this playoff season.

Playoff Points and Advancement Scenarios

Entering the Bristol race, the playoff standings are tightly contested. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have secured their spots in the Round of 12. Other drivers have the opportunity to clinch based on points or if another driver wins out in the Round of 16 elimination race.

If a repeat winner or a driver ineligible to advance claims victory, several drivers could clinch advancement by maintaining point leads over the 11th winless driver in the standings. Among those, Kyle Larson would clinch regardless of his finish, while Bubba Wallace needs seven points, Ryan Blaney requires 15, William Byron 18, Tyler Reddick 19, Christopher Bell 25, Chase Elliott 29, Joey Logano 36, Ross Chastain 38, and Austin Cindric 46 points. Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, and Josh Berry can only secure advancement with additional support.

If a new winner emerges from among drivers like Austin Dillon or another eligible driver without current wins, the points required to clinch shift slightly—with Larson needing only eight points, Wallace 18, Blaney 26, Byron 29, Reddick 31, Bell 36, Elliott 40, Logano 47, and Chastain 49 points. Again, several drivers can only clinch through outside assistance.

Historical Playoff Trends and Points Bubble Dynamics

Historically, the largest points deficit overcome to advance through the Round of 16 in the stage era is 19 points, achieved by Bubba Wallace at Bristol in 2023. Notably, no playoff driver has won the Round of 16 elimination race after starting below the cutoff line. Conversely, some drivers have failed to advance despite starting well above the bubble, with Ryan Newman holding the record at 14 points above in 2019 at the Roval.

Each of the last four seasons has seen at least one driver start the Round of 16 above the cutoff line but fail to move on. The current bubble of 11 points entering the final Round of 16 race is the largest ever recorded, surpassing the previous 7-point margin in 2023. Historically, the final points margin to advance has been five points or less in six of the eight seasons during the stage era. Shane van Gisbergen enters the playoffs 16 points above the cutoff; failure to advance would set a new record for the largest points surplus from which a driver did not advance to the Round of 12.

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