The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs enter a critical juncture this Sunday, September 21, as the Round of 12 kicks off at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with many top championship contenders still in the hunt. This stage sets the tone for which drivers will move closer to the title, with nearly all of last year’s favorites and multiple past champions remaining in contention.
So far in this decade, every Cup champion has survived into this round, and it’s evident the cream of the crop has risen in this year’s postseason. Among the 12 drivers left, nine represent the leading teams of the sport—Team Penske with Ford, Hendrick Motorsports running Chevrolet, and Joe Gibbs Racing piloting Toyota—all fielding three drivers each. With such a competitive landscape, the question remains: who is in the strongest position to advance further?
Top Contender Overview: Denny Hamlin Leading the Pack
Starting at the forefront is Denny Hamlin, clear as the top seed and favorite to claim the championship within the Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) stable, which swept the Round of 16. Hamlin secured his place with a victory at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, marking his fifth win of the season—more than anyone else—and also claimed the pole at the Southern 500 to launch this playoff stretch.
Hamlin brings strong historical performance at New Hampshire with three career wins and an average finish of 9.9 there. He also boasts consistent results at Kansas Speedway, recording seven top-10 finishes in the last eight races, only missing due to a mechanical failure in May. These two tracks alone could suffice for his advancement. Still, Hamlin’s main vulnerability remains mechanical reliability, as the No. 11 team has a history of costly failures in postseason runs, making the mental aspect as critical as equipment performance.
William Byron’s Mixed Playoff Record and Track Challenges
William Byron’s playoff journey this year has been uneven. While a two-time consecutive Championship 4 participant, his early Round of 16 races were disappointing, with no laps led or top-10 finishes in the opening three contests. His lone standout moment came in August with a win at Iowa Speedway.
Byron has historically advanced despite slow playoff starts, but this season’s Hendrick Motorsports performance feels inconsistent, especially on vulnerable tracks like New Hampshire, where Byron has never cracked the top 10 in seven attempts. Given his relatively modest two-win output this year, his fate may hinge on a strong effort at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL to avoid a surprising exit before the Round of 8.
Kyle Larson’s Struggles and Potential Track Strengths
Kyle Larson’s season shares similarities with Byron’s recent struggles, highlighted by a poor showing last week at Bristol Motor Speedway, where he finished 32nd despite championship-caliber history. His lack of top-10 finishes since May’s Indianapolis 500/Coca-Cola 600 events reflects a slump affecting the No. 5 team’s confidence.
However, Larson’s May pole-to-win at Kansas Speedway remains a strong point, as that single victory could punch his ticket to the next round. He also showed glimpses of speed with 52 laps led at Gateway. Success at these tracks will be critical if Larson is to reverse his recent fortunes.
Christopher Bell’s Momentum and Track Performance
Christopher Bell revived his playoff campaign with a timely victory at Bristol, ending a winless streak since March’s Phoenix Raceway event. Bell’s resurgence adds momentum to a team that holds the best statistical position for this round among drivers outside the top few seeds.
Bell won at New Hampshire last year, finished runner-up at Kansas in May, and also secured a second-place result at the ROVAL last fall. His strong track record across this round’s venues suggests he could win multiple races and close the gap with Hamlin regarding JGR’s internal pecking order.
Ryan Blaney’s Late-Season Surge and Track Advantages
Ryan Blaney and Team Penske have made a significant push in recent races after an inconsistent season. Blaney’s recent stretch features eight top-eight finishes in the last nine events, including a pivotal victory in the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway.
Blaney has limited playoff success, with his only win in this round coming at the Charlotte ROVAL in 2018, but boasts solid performances at Kansas—with consecutive top-five finishes—and a fifth-place finish at New Hampshire in 2021. Fueled by growing momentum and a confident team environment, Blaney remains a strong candidate to advance.
Chase Briscoe’s Unexpected Rise and New Team Dynamics
Chase Briscoe surprised many by dominating over 450 laps in the Round of 16—nearly doubling his regular-season total—despite a slow start to the year. Working with crew chief James Small, Briscoe has elevated his performance significantly. His team benefits from a history of success at New Hampshire, exemplified by Martin Truex Jr.’s victory last year.
Briscoe’s skill on road courses, such as the ROVAL, also plays in his favor. Supported by Toyota’s overall strength, this rookie JGR driver looks poised to emerge as a dark horse who could secure a spot in the Round of 8.
Chase Elliott’s Win Deficit and Key Challenges Ahead
Chase Elliott’s playoff profile over the past three years is puzzling, with only two wins to his name—fewer than all but one other driver still contending for the title. While he showed some promise with a third-place finish at Gateway, a lack of victories makes his position delicate. His struggles with the Next Gen car on road courses further compound the issue, reflected in an average finish of 11.3 on the Charlotte ROVAL since 2022.
Despite having secured the pole at New Hampshire last year, Elliott carries only a slim five-point cushion, which adds pressure to the team. Moreover, crew chief Alan Gustafson’s job may be at risk if Elliott’s playoff run ends early.
Bubba Wallace’s Career-Best Performance Amid Team Challenges
Bubba Wallace is enjoying the best season of his Cup career, leading a career-high 355 laps in 2024 while displaying maturity and resilience after setbacks—a shift from his previous struggles to overcome rough patches. His experience as a new father appears to have given him a stabilizing focus.
Despite 23XI Racing lacking last year’s outright speed and facing extra distractions like ongoing NASCAR lawsuits, Wallace has shown capability at key tracks: a previous Kansas victory, improvement at the ROVAL with a ninth-place finish in 2024, and a third-place finish at New Hampshire last year. These indicators suggest Wallace could take a significant step forward if he executes well.
Austin Cindric’s Narrow Path to Advancement
Austin Cindric barely secured a spot in the Round of 12 after struggling at Bristol due to tire problems that dropped him four laps behind. His average finish during the previous round sits at a low 20.3, with only one top-five since an April win at Talladega Superspeedway.
Cindric stands as the biggest underdog in this round; his best chance lies at the ROVAL, where he surprisingly finished fourth last year. Otherwise, his focus might shift toward retooling for the 2026 season, as his long-term tenure at Penske is in question.
Joey Logano’s Survival Mode Amidst a Challenging Season
Two-time champion Joey Logano faces a challenging year, marked by uncharacteristically low numbers in top-five finishes and a higher average finishing position than usual. Still, in odd-numbered years, he appears to fight through difficulties, as demonstrated by his surprising 2024 title run despite a weak regular season.
Recent back-to-back top-five finishes in the Round of 16 signal a possible resurgence. His experience and composure could earn him the last qualifying spot into the next round, emphasizing resilience in crucial moments.
Ross Chastain’s Struggles Highlight a Steep Decline
Since his victory at the Coca-Cola 600 in May, Ross Chastain has failed to finish in the top five and has struggled to lead laps or place in the top 10 during the Round of 16. His teammate Shane van Gisbergen was eliminated despite an impressive rookie season with four wins.
Chastain’s finishes at the key tracks in this round—10th at New Hampshire last season, 18th at Kansas, and 28th at the Charlotte ROVAL—do not provide much optimism for his ability to advance further.
Tyler Reddick Confronts a Difficult Season Amid Off-Track Distractions
Tyler Reddick’s season has been dominated by frustration, poor luck, and strategic errors, contrasting with teammate Bubba Wallace’s relative composure under similar off-track pressures involving breaches of contract and team uncertainties. Despite possessing the talent needed for a return to the Championship 4, Reddick’s lack of top-five finishes at this round’s tracks since 2024, combined with unsettled team circumstances, make his path uphill and uncertain.
Projected Eliminations from the Round of 12
Based on recent performance and track records, the drivers most likely to miss advancing to the Round of 8 include William Byron, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and Tyler Reddick. Each faces significant challenges ahead, either due to recent form, track history, or external distractions.
As the playoffs progress, the intensity will only increase, with teams and drivers needing to capitalize on every opportunity. This stage proves critical in shaping the championship fight and foreshadows a tense battle for the coveted final spots.
