Yuki Tsunoda’s position within Red Bull Racing is becoming increasingly precarious as his performance fails to match expectations since his promotion from Red Bull‘s junior team. Although the Japanese driver has gained a strong fan following, his results pale in comparison to teammate Max Verstappen, who amassed 194 points and three Grand Prix wins in the same timeframe Tsunoda managed only nine points. These struggles raise serious doubts about his long-term future in Formula 1 amid rising competition and internal team dynamics.
The Journey of a Fan Favorite with Unfulfilled Potential
Since making his Formula 1 debut with AlphaTauri in 2021, Tsunoda has emerged as a cult figure admired for his engaging personality and candid radio outbursts. His unique character—the contrast between his affable, sometimes awkward public demeanor and his intense competitiveness on track—has won him a loyal fanbase that even includes celebrity endorsements like Hollywood actress Kristen Bell. Despite his appeal, Tsunoda’s career is marked by inconsistency, with flashes of speed often overshadowed by his struggles in challenging moments.
Key Career Moments and Performance Comparisons
In the 2024 season, Tsunoda delivered notable performances, such as outperforming former contender Daniel Ricciardo and narrowly edging his teammate Liam Lawson with eight points to four. However, Lawson was promoted ahead of him to Red Bull’s main team in 2025 due to Christian Horner’s reservations about Tsunoda’s readiness—a view not equally shared by Helmut Marko, Red Bull‘s motorsport advisor, who has long championed Tsunoda’s talent. When Lawson faltered under pressure and was demoted, Tsunoda finally received his opportunity to race at the senior team level.
The Influence of Team Personnel on Tsunoda’s Development
Marko’s confidence in Tsunoda dates back to 2020, recalling Tsunoda’s rapid ascent from Formula 3 and Toyota Racing Series to Formula 2, where he finished third behind Mick Schumacher. Early in his F1 tenure at AlphaTauri, Tsunoda’s challenges extended beyond the racetrack, including language barriers and lifestyle adjustments. Team principal Franz Tost played a crucial role in supporting Tsunoda, encouraging him to improve his fitness and English proficiency while fostering a welcoming environment in Faenza, Italy.
The arrival of Laurent Mekies as Red Bull’s new team principal introduced a more supportive environment for Tsunoda. Mekies made efforts to level the playing field by ensuring Tsunoda received technical upgrades, such as an improved floor for his car, and by cultivating a positive atmosphere at the pit wall. Mekies discourages discussions about imminent lineup changes, signaling patience and belief in Tsunoda’s potential progress.
Technical Struggles and the Need for Immediate Improvement
Despite better car development and increased team support, Tsunoda still grapples with mastering the handling characteristics of Red Bull’s Formula 1 cars, which are notoriously sensitive and demanding to control. Alexander Albon has described the Red Bull as highly twitchy, and while the newer VCARB chassis may be easier to drive, Tsunoda has yet to fully optimize his performance. With his second chance secured, Tsunoda faces mounting pressure to significantly improve results to secure his place within the team.
Challenges Ahead: Limited Options Beyond Red Bull
Tsunoda’s future in Formula 1 is complicated by Honda‘s decision to supply only Aston Martin as a works team starting in 2026, where both seats are currently occupied by Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll, making a manufacturer-backed transfer unlikely. Returning to AlphaTauri, racing under the Racing Bulls banner, is also improbable due to Tsunoda approaching his sixth season, exceeding the junior team’s typical driver profile. Meanwhile, Red Bull has several promising juniors awaiting promotion, increasing competition for available seats.
If Red Bull decides to replace Tsunoda, Isack Hadjar appears as the most likely successor, despite only having one year of experience with the team. Hadjar’s straightforward, no-nonsense driving style fits the preferred teammate profile for Verstappen. Additionally, prospects like Josep Maria Marti or Arvid Lindblad could be promoted at AlphaTauri, potentially alongside Liam Lawson to provide experience and consistency as the team navigates future driver lineups.
Limited Alternatives for Tsunoda in the Broader F1 Grid
Other major Formula 1 teams have largely secured their driver lineups for 2026. McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes have confirmed their selections, making late changes improbable. Williams and Aston Martin have locked in their rosters, and teams such as Audi, Haas, and Alpine likewise have limited availability. Alpine’s recent contract extension with Pierre Gasly further decreases the chances of Tsunoda shifting to another top-tier team, while offers from outside the Red Bull ecosystem remain unlikely, given the current driver market and team priorities.
What Tsunoda’s Future Could Mean for Formula 1
Yuki Tsunoda’s situation exemplifies the challenges faced by talented but inconsistent drivers trying to secure their spot in a highly competitive sport. If he fails to elevate his performance soon, Tsunoda risks losing his seat and potentially his Formula 1 career, despite early promise and strong backing from key individuals like Helmut Marko and Laurent Mekies. This crossroads will not only affect Tsunoda personally but also reflect Red Bull’s ongoing strategy in nurturing and selecting drivers who can reliably perform at the highest level alongside Verstappen.
Ultimately, Tsunoda’s trajectory highlights how crucial adaptability, consistency, and timing are for young drivers trying to make their mark in Formula 1. His next races will be critical to determining whether he remains part of the Red Bull family or joins a growing list of talented contenders who fall short of lasting success in F1’s demanding environment.
