NASCAR returns with its premier event, the Daytona 500, kicking off the 2026 season this Sunday at the iconic Daytona International Speedway. The excitement is heightened with the new slogan “Hell Yeah” and a shift from the elimination playoff system back to a revamped Chase format, setting the stage for an intense and unpredictable race. This article explores the Daytona 500 2026 picks, offering insights on the odds and standout drivers to watch.
Entry List and Race Format Changes to Note
This year, there are 45 drivers vying for 41 available spots in the Daytona 500, meaning four entrants will miss the race. Of the 41 spots, 36 are reserved for chartered teams, locking those drivers into the event. Notably, seven-time Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson will use the open provisional position, securing the 41st entry spot guaranteed without earning points or prize money.
The eight open cars battling for the remaining four slots include Chandler Smith (#36), Justin Allgaier (#40), JJ Yeley (#44), Anthony Alfredo (#62), Casey Mears (#66), Corey Heim (#67), BJ McLeod (#78), and Corey Lajoie (#99). On Wednesday night, two open cars will qualify based on single-car time trials, and the remaining two will earn their place through the duel races on Thursday night. The Daytona 500 green flag is scheduled for 3:13 p.m. ET, with FOX broadcasting live coverage starting at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Who Are the Early Favorites to Win?
The betting market is led by several top drivers with attractive odds. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano both share the shortest odds at +1000, closely followed by William Byron at +1100 and Denny Hamlin at +1400. Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are also heavy contenders with +1500 and +1600 odds respectively, while Austin Cindric, Bubba Wallace, and Christopher Bell round out the drivers with solid chances near +1700 to +2000 odds.
Further down the list, experienced veterans such as Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Chase Briscoe present value options at +2000 to +2200. The wide range of odds also includes longshots like Corey Lajoie (+4500), Noah Gragson (+5000), and rookies such as Chandler Smith and Riley Herbst at +10000. This diversity in odds reflects the highly competitive and unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing.
Strategic Insights on Prominent Betting Picks
Kyle Larson Edges Out Austin Cindric in Drafting Performance
While Austin Cindric has been regarded as strong on drafting tracks, recent performance suggests Kyle Larson has gained the upper hand. In the last five drafting track events, Larson has bested Cindric four times, including a close second-place finish behind Cindric at spring Talladega. Conversely, Cindric is currently enduring a rough patch, finishing 34th or worse over three consecutive races.
Once considered a fade candidate on superspeedways, Larson has improved dramatically, showing resilience against his past weaknesses. At plus money odds, betting on Larson over Cindric is an enticing option for many.
“Over the last decade of Daytona 500’s, Kyle Larson is 6 for 10 at finishing between 7th to 12th.
If he didn’t run out of gas last fall at Dega while leading the inside lane, he might just have 3 straight top 6 finishes right now at big superspeedways in a row.”
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) February 9, 2026
Corey Lajoie Brings Consistency and Upside for a Top-Five Finish
Although Corey Lajoie is not yet locked into the race, he remains a compelling bet. As a formidable drafting track racer now driving the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing #99 Ford, Lajoie is in arguably the best equipment of his career. His consistency is remarkable, being the only driver to finish on the lead lap in all four NextGen era Daytona 500 races.
His previous strong finishes include 4th place two seasons ago, and a near-win last year when he led the race with only three laps left. Over the past six years, Lajoie’s Daytona 500 results have been solid and steady, making a top-five finish plausible if his team continues this momentum.
“Did you know:
Corey LaJoie is the only driver to finish in the lead lap in all four Daytona 500s in the NextGen era https://t.co/oKL3iEzGLh”
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) February 11, 2026
AJ Allmendinger Targets a Top 10 Despite Setbacks
AJ Allmendinger, known for his prowess on road courses and superspeedways alike, is primed to contend for a top-10 finish. Last year, an early engine failure marred his Daytona 500 chances, resulting in a 41st-place finish. Yet, before that, he was flawless in four successive Daytona 500 starts, consistently finishing in the top 10, including a podium finish in 2017.
Allmendinger’s #16 Kaulig Racing car will carry a tribute to the late Greg Biffle, who famously drove the same number during his career. This homage adds emotional weight to Allmendinger’s campaign, fueling hope for a strong and inspiring performance.
“Something everyone wanted to see. 🙌
Kaulig Racing will pay tribute to Greg Biffle with his iconic numeric font on AJ Allmendinger’s No. 16 car in the #Daytona500! pic.twitter.com/NmEyfOEddp”
— Kaulig Racing (@KauligRacing) January 22, 2026
Carson Hocevar Emerges as a Promising Longshot to Win
Carson Hocevar has quickly established himself as a dynamic presence in NASCAR, combining talent with infectious energy. While relatively inexperienced on drafting tracks, he nearly clinched victory at last year’s spring Atlanta race, where a strategic caution cost him a likely win.
He finished second at Atlanta and achieved notable top 10 and top 6 finishes at both Atlanta and Talladega. After overcoming a tough Daytona 500 last fall, Hocevar ran 11th in the subsequent race at Daytona. His rapid development and determination make him a standout dark horse with +3800 odds to win.
“A look at the finish of tonight’s race at @ATLMotorSpdwy. @CBellRacing is victorious in the No. 20. pic.twitter.com/irWtUozrO4”
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 24, 2025
Implications for Bettors and Race Enthusiasts
The Daytona 500 2026 promises to be a high-stakes event with many variables, including the entry list battles and the return to a Chase-based playoff system. Bettors should closely monitor open car qualifiers and consider drivers like Kyle Larson, Corey Lajoie, AJ Allmendinger, and Carson Hocevar who have demonstrated racing strength and strategic advantages.
As the race unfolds at Daytona International Speedway, the varied odds and profiles of contenders make betting both exciting and challenging. The blend of seasoned champions and emerging talents ensures an unpredictable race that can dramatically reshape the NASCAR Cup Series season. Live coverage on FOX will provide fans and bettors real-time excitement beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday.
Over the last decade of Daytona 500's, Kyle Larson is 6 for 10 at finishing between 7th to 12th.
If he didn't run out of gas last fall at Dega while leading the inside lane, he might just have 3 straight top 6 finishes right now at big superspeedways in a row.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) February 9, 2026
Did you know:
Corey LaJoie is the only driver to finish in the lead lap in all four Daytona 500s in the NextGen era https://t.co/oKL3iEzGLh
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) February 11, 2026
https://twitter.com/KauligRacing/status/2014352353525432672
A look at the finish of tonight's race at @ATLMotorSpdwy. @CBellRacing is victorious in the No. 20. pic.twitter.com/irWtUozrO4
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 24, 2025
