Max Verstappen remains a potential contender for the 2025 Formula 1 world championship despite trailing the current leaders, as recent races have shaken up the title battle dynamics. After his dominant performances at Monza and Baku, Verstappen’s resurgence introduces a new level of pressure on McLaren, which has experienced setbacks in recent rounds.
Verstappen’s latest victories, both earned from pole position, halted McLaren’s winning streak for the first time this season. Meanwhile, McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have faced mixed fortunes; Norris secured second place and Piastri third at the Italian Grand Prix, but a poor outing in Azerbaijan saw Norris finish seventh and Piastri retire early due to a crash. The reigning world champion‘s rise places him 69 points behind championship leader Piastri, sparking debate about Verstappen’s legitimacy as a title threat in the final seven races of the season.
Verstappen’s Title Chances Depend on McLaren’s Performance
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen has displayed his usual skill and speed, demonstrating that the team’s car is now competitive enough to challenge McLaren’s MCL39, which has set the tone for much of the season. However, as McLaren team principal Andrea Stella noted, Verstappen’s opportunity hinges largely on McLaren’s ability to avoid further mistakes.
Just days after Stella publicly recognized Verstappen as a title contender, questions arose about the seriousness of that claim, given Verstappen’s 94-point deficit at the time. Still, the gap has since closed to 69 points, reflecting both Verstappen’s commanding drive and McLaren’s troubling weekend in Baku, where a series of errors from both drivers, including slow pit stops and Piastri’s early crash, hurt their championship prospects.
Despite this, Verstappen faces a formidable challenge. The McLaren car retains its pace advantage, especially at upcoming high-downforce circuits like Singapore, Qatar, and Mexico, where McLaren has historically performed well. Feedback from analysts suggests that even if Verstappen secures multiple wins, strong finishes from Piastri should be enough to keep him at bay.
Verstappen’s title hopes are therefore tightly linked to McLaren’s capacity to maintain consistency and avoid repeated mistakes.
“Verstappen is only in this if McLaren allows him to be,”
one expert highlighted, emphasizing that the battle for the crown remains firmly in the hands of the championship leaders.
Historic Comebacks Show Verstappen’s Deficit Can Be Overcome
Examining F1 history reveals that significant points gaps can be reduced or erased, offering hope to Verstappen’s campaign. Comparing the current situation with Kimi Räikkönen’s 2007 title win illustrates a feasible path forward, albeit a challenging one.
With seven races left in the 2025 season, about 29% of the calendar remains, offering a maximum of 199 points for a driver to earn. Verstappen trails Piastri by 69 points, which represents roughly 34% of the possible score still available—a gap larger than Räikkönen faced in 2007 at a comparable stage, when he was 16 points behind Lewis Hamilton with 50 points left on offer.
This example serves as a reminder that comebacks are achievable. Although the points system and number of races have evolved, rallies from behind are part of the sport’s fabric. However, Verstappen’s task is tougher, and success depends not only on his performance but also on McLaren’s errors or unexpected misfortunes.
While this statistical analogy should be considered cautiously, it underscores the reality that Verstappen’s comeback is possible if McLaren falters again.
Memories of Räikkönen’s 2007 Triumph Highlight Unpredictability in F1
Stuart Codling, a journalist who covered F1 during Räikkönen’s remarkable 2007 campaign, recalls the unpredictability surrounding final championship rounds. At the time, multiple cover versions were prepared by F1 Racing magazine to keep up with rapidly changing race outcomes, reflecting how quickly fortunes can shift in the sport.
Räikkönen’s status as an outsider at the time — including his well-known aversion to media attention — made his eventual championship win even more surprising. The final rounds, especially the dramatic Brazilian GP, demanded last-minute adjustments and crafted narratives that acknowledged how unlikely yet real his title victory was.
Codling reflects that, despite changes in era, race calendars, and points systems, the spirit of such unexpected championship turns remains alive. His account also mentions similar instances, such as John Surtees in 1964, who rose from a low mid-season rank to challenge the championship leaders, reminding fans that even distant contenders can shape the final outcome.
“Hamilton on Brazil: Defeat will only make me stronger” – Lewis Hamilton
“THE ICEMAN COMETH… Exclusive analysis: How Kimi beat the odds to finish the season as world champion” – Stuart Codling
Recent Setbacks Viewed as Temporary, McLaren Still Favourites
Despite conversations about historic comebacks and Verstappen’s growing momentum, many insiders warn against overestimating two faltering races for McLaren. Analyst Ed Hardy points to a broader perspective, reminding that short-term difficulties should not overshadow months of dominant performance by McLaren and their drivers.
Baku and Canada stand out as rare occasions when McLaren has failed to reach the podium this year, but such moments are exceptions rather than a pattern. Norris and Piastri have demonstrated resilience and consistency over the season, making it difficult for Verstappen to maintain a sustained challenge without their stumbles.
Hardy notes that Verstappen’s continued hopes require McLaren drivers to miss out on podiums frequently, which has not been the case overall. Moreover, McLaren’s favorable upcoming race tracks provide the team with solid opportunities to accumulate points and maintain its championship lead.
As Hardy sums up, the key question remains whether McLaren can avoid repeating mistakes like those seen in Baku; otherwise, Verstappen may seize the chance. But so far, the firm consensus is that McLaren remains well-positioned to fend off Red Bull’s challenge.
Looking Ahead: The Championship Remains Intensely Competitive
The final seven Grand Prix of the 2025 season will present a high-stakes battleground between Max Verstappen and McLaren’s duo of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. Verstappen’s recent surge injects tension into what had appeared to be a tightly controlled championship lead for McLaren, but his margin remains substantial.
While Verstappen’s prospects depend on flawless driving and capitalizing on McLaren’s errors, the next few rounds include circuits suited to McLaren’s strengths, potentially reinforcing their hold on the title. The battle promises to be closely watched, with the narrowing points gap adding drama and uncertainty to the championship run-in.
Ultimately, the outcome will reflect both driver skill and team strategy, and whether Verstappen can overturn history once more or McLaren can close out a dominant season. For fans and insiders alike, the question lingers: is Max Verstappen still a genuine threat for the 2025 title, or will McLaren’s consistency prove too strong to overcome?
