The 2026 Daytona 500, set for Sunday, February 15, at Daytona International Speedway, will launch the NASCAR season with high anticipation. Among the favorites like Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and William Byron, Kyle Busch emerges as a compelling longshot pick according to expert models, offering potential value for bettors seeking to capitalize on the event.
Evaluating Underdogs with Potential at the Daytona 500
The latest odds for the 2026 Daytona 500 highlight popular frontrunners, but a sophisticated computer model developed by Mike McClure identifies value in several longshot contenders. Busch, with a deep reserve of experience on Daytona’s track, stands out especially alongside drivers Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe. Although Busch has yet to win the Daytona 500 itself, his record—one Daytona Cup Series victory and five second-place finishes on the Speedway—makes him a formidable candidate at 20-1 odds. Both Bell and Briscoe carry odds of 22-1, signaling promising potential for bettors looking beyond the favorites.
Why Kyle Busch Is a Strong Contender Despite Longshot Status
Kyle Busch is preparing for his 42nd NASCAR Cup Series start at Daytona International Speedway, more than any other current driver and one of only two with over 35 starts at this venue. Although the 40-year-old has never clinched the Daytona 500 title, he came close with a runner-up finish in 2019 and boasts five second-place finishes at this speedway overall. Busch’s total of 63 NASCAR Cup wins—leading among active drivers—reflects a prolific career, including one victory earned at Daytona itself. With nine top-five finishes in 41 attempts on this track, his proven skill and extensive experience justify the model’s projection of strong value at 20-1 odds. Caesars Sportsbook currently offers the most favorable odds for Busch, while other sportsbooks price him lower.
Christopher Bell’s Recent Successes Keep Him in the Mix
Christopher Bell remains a formidable presence at the Daytona 500, as evidenced by his performances in recent years. Last season, Bell led for several laps and finished fifth in the first stage before a crash on lap 196 ended his race prematurely. His consistent form includes third-place finishes in back-to-back Daytona 500 races previously, showcasing his ability to contend near the front. Bell also secured four Cup victories last year, tying for third in NASCAR’s win count. At 22-1 odds, the expert model finds worthwhile value in Bell capturing his inaugural Daytona 500 victory. DraftKings presents 22-1 odds for Bell, slightly better than competing sportsbooks’ offerings.
Chase Briscoe’s Rising Momentum Positions Him as a Dark Horse
Chase Briscoe has steadily improved to become a serious threat at the Daytona 500. He has two top-five finishes in five attempts and consistently finished in the top 20 in all races where he avoided accidents. Last year’s fourth-place result marked the beginning of Briscoe’s best season, culminating in a third-place finish overall in the NASCAR Cup standings. He also achieved three wins in 2025, doubling his total from the preceding four seasons, and shared the lead for most top-five finishes in the series with 15. His continuous improvement and strong Daytona record make his 22-1 odds an attractive proposition for bettors.
Proven Expertise Behind the Daytona 500 Projections
Mike McClure, a professional daily fantasy sports player with over $2 million in career winnings, developed the computer model influencing these predictions. His system simulates every lap of NASCAR races 10,000 times, which has accurately forecasted 29 winners since 2021, including 11 in the 2025 season alone. This consistent success underpins the model’s credibility for the 2026 Daytona 500 selections, offering bettors a data-driven edge. McClure’s best picks are available exclusively through SportsLine.
Where to Place Bets on These Longshot Candidates
For those interested in wagering on Kyle Busch, Caesars Sportsbook provides a first-bet match bonus up to $250 through the promo code CBSSPORTS250BM. Christopher Bell’s bets can be placed via DraftKings with a $300 bonus bet offer on first $5+ winning bets for new users. Meanwhile, FanDuel offers a $100 bonus bet for new users betting on Chase Briscoe with a minimum $5 stake. These promotions enhance the appeal of backing these promising underdogs leading up to the race.
Looking Ahead to the Race Day Impact
As the 2026 Daytona 500 approaches, Kyle Busch’s impressive history at Daytona, combined with strong statistics from Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, injects excitement into the betting landscape beyond the usual favorites. The model’s endorsement of these longshots suggests that seasoned bettors should consider these choices carefully, potentially reaping significant rewards. The race will not only test driver skill but also highlight the accuracy of these data-driven predictions, setting the tone for the NASCAR season to follow.
