As the countdown to the 2026 Formula 1 season begins, with the Australian Grand Prix set for March 8 in Melbourne, the anticipation is high but uncertainty looms over who will dominate the grid. New regulations introduce an element of unpredictability, making it difficult to pinpoint clear frontrunners. Despite this, odds compiled by bookmakers show Max Verstappen continuing as a strong contender, while Lewis Hamilton’s chances of securing an eighth world title appear slim.
The latest betting odds for the 2026 Drivers’ Championship reveal Max Verstappen and Mercedes’ George Russell as co-favorites, both holding identical odds of 11/4. Meanwhile, reigning champion Lando Norris and his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri follow closely, narrowing the field but still leaving room for surprises. Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso outshines Hamilton among veteran drivers, with significantly better prospects despite Hamilton’s move to Ferrari.
Driver Championship Betting Odds and Predictions
The favored contenders for the 2026 world title currently include:
Max Verstappen: 11/4 odds, equating to a 26.7% win probability.
George Russell: Also at 11/4, sharing Verstappen’s 26.7% chance.
Lando Norris: Listed at 9/2, implying an 18.2% chance.
Oscar Piastri: 15/2 odds, corresponding to 11.8%.
Fernando Alonso: Even with similar odds to Piastri, Alonso’s experience could be influential.
Kimi Antonelli: Positioned at 10/1 with a 9.1% probability.
Charles Leclerc: Given 20/1 odds (4.8% chance), showing Ferrari’s mixed outlook this season.
Lewis Hamilton: Marked at 33/1, with an estimated 2.9% chance, underscoring a challenging outlook for the seven-time champion in Maranello.
Other notable entrants like Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez, and Valtteri Bottas have long odds, with implied win probabilities ranging from 10.2% to 11.5%, indicating low expectations for championship contention.
Team Prospects for the 2026 Constructors’ Championship
On the team front, Mercedes leads the betting odds at 5/4, suggesting a 44.4% probability of winning the Constructors’ title. This reflects widespread belief that Mercedes will adapt effectively to the new technical rules. McLaren follows with odds of 11/8, backed by the strong line-up of Norris and Piastri.
Ferrari, powered by Hamilton and Leclerc, holds an odds position of 9/1, translating to a 10% chance, pointing to an expectation that they at least accumulate consistent points even if race wins remain scarce. Surprisingly, Red Bull’s odds slip to 12/1, a rarity given Verstappen’s dominance in recent years, highlighting the larger uncertainty this season.
The full Constructors’ odds for 2026 are:
Mercedes: 5/4 (44.4%)
McLaren: 11/8 (42.1%)
Ferrari: 9/1 (10%)
Red Bull: 12/1 (7.7%)
Aston Martin: 12/1 (7.7%)
Audi: 28/1 (3.4%)
Smaller teams such as Williams, Alpine, Racing Bulls, Haas, and Cadillac are priced at 50/1 or longer, reflecting the substantial challenges they face under the new rules.
Preparations and Calendar Highlights Ahead of 2026 Season
The upcoming pre-season involves several key events, beginning with team launches kicked off by Red Bull, signaling the start of an intense period. Testing will begin behind closed doors in Barcelona from January 26 to 30, followed by two scheduled testing sessions in Bahrain on February 11-13 and February 18-20.
The 2026 Formula 1 season officially opens at Albert Park, Melbourne, with practice sessions for the Australian Grand Prix starting Friday, March 6, leading into the race on March 8. Teams and drivers alike will face a critical period to refine their cars, adapt to regulatory changes, and gauge their competitiveness.
Implications of the New Season Outlook
The shift in favorability indicated by the odds, particularly the drop in Lewis Hamilton’s chances despite his proven talent, underscores the unpredictable nature of transitioning to new regulations. Hamilton’s move to Ferrari, a team currently viewed as less likely to secure the championship, places him in a complex position amid strong competition from Verstappen, Russell, and a host of emerging talents.
Max Verstappen’s maintained status as a favorite reflects his consistency but also adds pressure as rivals close the gap. Mercedes’ lead in the Constructors’ betting hints at a potentially dominant season if they translate adaptation into performance. Meanwhile, the mix of experienced drivers like Fernando Alonso and promising newcomers such as Oscar Piastri sets up an intriguing season that could redefine the sport’s competitive landscape.
