Rumors about a possible Max Verstappen Mercedes move have intensified amid the ongoing Formula 1 season, especially following Lewis Hamilton’s unexpected announcement to leave Mercedes for Ferrari at the end of 2024. Discussions about Verstappen joining Mercedes have gained traction this week, fueled by reports from Sky Sports Italy suggesting that talks between the Silver Arrows and Verstappen are in a decisive phase. Meanwhile, other sources including Sky Sports F1 and De Telegraaf have cast doubts, stating that Verstappen has not expressed a desire to leave Red Bull early nor has Mercedes made an official offer to the reigning world champion.
The whirlwind of rumors raises several questions: Why would Mercedes pursue Verstappen now? Would Verstappen consider moving when contracted through 2028? And what implications would such a move have for Mercedes’ current drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli? This article examines these points, exploring the rumors surrounding Max Verstappen and Mercedes, while assessing the complexities involved.
Reasons Behind Mercedes’ Interest in Max Verstappen
Mercedes’ interest in Verstappen is straightforward: he is a four-time Drivers’ Champion known for extracting exceptional performance from his car, even when it isn’t the fastest on the grid. Verstappen’s recent title, achieved in 2024 with Red Bull’s RB20, highlights his extraordinary skill and competitive edge.
Toto Wolff, Mercedes’ team principal, has publicly expressed regret over missing the chance to sign Verstappen years ago. In a 2023 ESPN interview, Wolff recalled meeting Verstappen’s representatives, Jos and Huub Rothengatter, sometime around 2013 or early 2014, while Verstappen was transitioning from karting to Formula 3.
“I spoke to Jos and Huub Rothengatter [Jos Verstappen’s manager during his F1 career] when they came to my office in Brackley and that must have been when Max was in karting or the end of his karting days [in 2013] just before Formula 3 [in 2014],”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
He also described a follow-up meeting with the Verstappens at his residence in Vienna where they discussed Max’s future.
“Do I regret missing out on Max? Certainly.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
At the time, Verstappen wasn’t an option for Mercedes because the team had Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg under contract. When Rosberg retired in 2016, Verstappen had secured a Red Bull seat and Mercedes was grooming Valtteri Bottas as a replacement driver. Now, with both George Russell and rookie Kimi Antonelli’s contracts expiring after 2025, Wolff appears to be open to exploring Verstappen’s availability.
Despite this, Mercedes’ current line-up is strong: Russell is performing at an elite level during his best season, and 18-year-old Antonelli has quickly established himself as a future star, already securing a podium finish and sitting seventh in the Drivers’ Championship. Mercedes might want to build their future around the promising duo, but the arrival of Verstappen could disrupt this plan, especially considering their competitive dynamics.
Contractual Barriers and Incentives for Verstappen’s Potential Move
Verstappen’s current contract with Red Bull runs through 2028, which is a major hurdle for any early departure. Red Bull team principal Christian Horner has emphasized that Verstappen plans to stay and dismissed transfer rumors.
However, reports reveal a potential exit clause: if Verstappen is outside the top four in the Drivers’ Championship by the summer break, shortly after the Hungarian Grand Prix, he could renegotiate his contract. This possibility depends heavily on his on-track success this season.
Yet, this exit would come at an extraordinary financial cost. Sky Sports F1 estimates the buyout fee could exceed £100 million (approximately $135 million), creating a significant deterrent for any interested teams.
Currently, Verstappen ranks third in the Drivers’ Championship standings, behind leader Oscar Piastri and second-place Lando Norris, with a nine-point lead over fourth-place George Russell. With a 36-point gap back to fifth-place Charles Leclerc, the on-track scenario would have to shift considerably for the clause triggering an exit to activate.
If Mercedes were willing to pay the hefty buyout and Verstappen opted to move, the decision would likely be influenced by changes anticipated for the 2026 season. New regulations introducing revised aerodynamics and power unit structures promise to reshape the sport significantly.
Impact of the 2026 Regulation Changes on Driver Movements
The 2026 Formula 1 regulations will introduce a major overhaul, including a hybrid power unit split evenly between the electric motor and internal combustion engine. Mercedes has long been recognized for its excellence in power unit design, demonstrated by their dominance from 2014 to 2021, securing eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships and seven Drivers’ titles during this era.
Rumors suggest Mercedes’ 2026 power unit could provide another competitive edge. Meanwhile, Red Bull will shift its supplier partnership from Honda to Ford starting in 2026, with Ford engines powering both Red Bull and the newly named Visa Cash App Racing Bulls through at least 2030. Honda, in turn, will supply power units to Aston Martin, intensifying the competitive landscape as teams adapt to new designs and partnerships.
If Mercedes regains dominance with its new power units, Verstappen could be tempted by the prospect of driving the fastest car once again. Renowned designer Adrian Newey’s insights reinforce this view:
“I mean Max, obviously a formidable competitor, but he’s also a very simple beast – and I mean that in an entirely complimentary way,”
—Adrian Newey, Red Bull Chief Technical Officer
“So I suspect Max will always chase who he thinks will produce the fastest car.”
—Adrian Newey, Red Bull Chief Technical Officer
Verstappen himself has previously expressed that his priority is to have the fastest car on the grid, regardless of the team:
“Yes, I think I can do it next year with Red Bull.”
—Max Verstappen, F1 Driver
This statement, made during the 2020 season, underscored his commitment to Red Bull as he captured his 2021 Drivers’ title. Yet if Mercedes’ technical program looks stronger in the lead-up to 2026, Verstappen may consider a move despite his contract.
Consequences for Mercedes’ Current Driver Lineup if Verstappen Joins
The arrival of Verstappen at Mercedes would complicate the team’s driver situation, particularly for George Russell. With Antonelli showing strong promise, securing the rookie’s long-term future seems a priority for Mercedes. Pairing Verstappen’s current championship-caliber talent with Antonelli’s youthful potential provides a balance of experience and growth.
In this context, Russell, who has delivered stellar results this season including five podiums and a Canadian Grand Prix victory, could become dispensable. This would mark a sudden end to his tenure at Mercedes just as he steps into a leadership role following Hamilton’s departure.
Russell’s future options may include a return to Red Bull or exploring other teams, but Mercedes would lose one of its most consistent performers of recent years.
Outlook on the Rumors and What Might Occur Next
Despite the heated speculation, the most likely outcome is that current contracts and circumstances will keep Verstappen at Red Bull, while Mercedes maintains its present driver lineup. Toto Wolff has acknowledged that Mercedes is exploring all options carefully due to the nearing contract expirations of Russell and Antonelli.
“You need to be respectable towards the stakeholders in all of that process – the organisation, the drivers, everybody,”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
Wolff emphasized the importance of making timely decisions without causing unnecessary delays for drivers:
“I don’t want to be sadistic in letting a driver wait or not taking any decisions when it should be taken.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
Speaking after the Austrian Grand Prix, Wolff indicated that discussions are ongoing but not expected to reach conclusions until the summer break:
“I’ve been open with it, transparent. And at a certain stage, in the next couple of months, until the summer break, everything is going to be done.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
From Verstappen’s standpoint, the goal remains driving the fastest car, but whether that will be Mercedes or Red Bull remains open to the season’s developments, especially considering the monumental buyout fee and his current standing in the championship.
Mercedes may view the $135 million buyout as unjustifiable if the new power unit program leads them to renewed competitiveness without Verstappen’s addition. Maintaining Russell and Antonelli could provide both present strength and future development at a lower cost.
In summary, the status quo appears the most plausible scenario as the paddock approaches the summer break, with all parties conducting thorough evaluations before making any drastic moves. Max Verstappen’s potential Mercedes transfer, while tantalizing, faces numerous hurdles that may preserve existing team structures through the end of this season and beyond.
