Max Verstappen’s quest for the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship remains mathematically alive, despite daunting odds. With seven races and three sprint events left in the season, the reigning champion finds himself trailing McLaren’s Oscar Piastri by 69 points and Lando Norris by 44, making the challenge of overtaking both formidable.
Given there are 199 points still available, Verstappen could theoretically win the championship if everything breaks perfectly in his favor. However, the numbers show it won’t be enough for him to outscore Piastri if the McLaren driver maintains consistent podium finishes.
The Steep Challenge of Catching Both McLaren Drivers
Even winning every remaining event would leave Verstappen 17 points short of Piastri’s current tally, so the Dutchman depends heavily on misfortune hitting his rivals. Piastri would need to encounter setbacks similar to his retirement in last weekend’s Baku Grand Prix or face difficulties in qualifying that hinder top finishes.
Moreover, Verstappen must outperform not just Piastri but also his teammate Lando Norris, who sits closer at 44 points behind. The likelihood of both McLaren drivers experiencing regular issues is minimal, placing significant pressure on Verstappen’s consistency and luck.
Compounding this challenge is Verstappen’s junior teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, whose inexperience means he’s unlikely to act as a reliable second driver to strategically hamper McLaren or add pressure on the frontrunners. Verstappen and Red Bull can only press forward, focusing on maximizing every race weekend as it comes.
Red Bull’s Recent Form and Technical Developments
Red Bull has gained momentum following Verstappen’s back-to-back victories in Monza and Baku, tracks favoring the RB21’s low downforce setup. An aerodynamic upgrade introduced in Italy proved effective, helping the team get the best out of their car in those specific conditions.
The big question now is whether this positive form can be sustained, especially as they head to Singapore, a circuit demanding high downforce and a different driving approach. After struggling at similarly demanding venues like Budapest, Red Bull will need to adapt quickly to maintain competitiveness.
I tell you how we look at it,
Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies said in Baku.
We really take it race-by-race. So we don’t look at the championship positions. We don’t even look at it from a constructors’ perspective. Yes, it’s nice to look at the battle for second place in the constructors’, but we take it step-by-step in terms of our understanding of the car, in terms of unlocking lap time from the car. We got some good answers in Monza, of course, we got some good answers today. We are equally conscious that they are two very, very specific tracks. So way we look at next race is not by looking at the gap to whoever, but Singapore is going to be a different challenge. How do we tackle it? How can what we learned be applied to that? And how much risk you want to take? And at the moment, we try to have a high-risk approach, to try to learn as much as we can for the end of the season, and that prevails on championship discussions or whatever.
– Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Team Principal
This mindset frees Verstappen to push the boundaries on track, focusing on setup and strategy choices that favor his natural driving talent, rather than being constrained by championship point calculations.
McLaren’s Position and the Pressure to Seal Both Titles
McLaren currently holds the upper hand, with their drivers leading the championship and the constructors’ title tantalizingly close. Except for a setback in Baku, which postponed their championship confirmation, the team is on track to win the constructors’ trophy for the second consecutive year at the Singapore Grand Prix.
Regarding the drivers’ crown, McLaren last tasted success when Lewis Hamilton claimed the title in 2008, heightening the stakes for Piastri and Norris. A late-season collapse would be devastating, even if it seems improbable. Mekies believes that Red Bull’s recent momentum might raise their own confidence, but it won’t necessarily affect McLaren’s approach.
The confidence goes up. So also you can take a bit more risk every race, and experiment a bit more, and unlock more lap time. And whether that has an effect on what McLaren does, honestly, I don’t know – probably none of none of our business. We concentrate on ourselves, really. That’s what we want to see. And we want to see the car making progress in some areas, and if it works, it will be good against McLaren, it will be good against Mercedes and Ferrari.
– Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Team Principal
Leadership Change and New Strategies at Red Bull
Red Bull has undergone structural shifts during the season after the sudden exit of Christian Horner, with Laurent Mekies stepping into a leadership role characterized by a highly technical and engineering-based approach. The team now relies more on Verstappen’s instinctive feedback from the track rather than purely on simulations to guide car setup and performance improvements.
The key test is whether the strides made on low downforce circuits like Monza and Baku can translate to circuits requiring different aerodynamic packages, such as Singapore and the forthcoming races.
I think we probably feel today that some of the good stuff we have seen in Monza, we found here again,
Mekies stated.
Certainly in the slow-speed corners of Baku. It’s very low downforce, but only slow-speed corners, and it worked very well for us. Which is a different equation to Monza. So that’s good news. The common point is a very, very low downforce. You go to Singapore, you move a bit your equations, you keep the slow speed corners, but you go to maximum downforce. We have been struggling quite a lot in Budapest [another high downforce venue], and it’s also a much hotter track. And we know how sensitive not only us, but the whole field, is to that aspect. So we take it step-by-step.
– Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Team Principal
Singapore: The Ultimate Test for Red Bull’s RB21
Singapore has historically been a challenging circuit for Red Bull, underscored by their failure to win there in 2023, which was their only loss in 22 races that season. This race will serve as a vital indicator of how adaptable their car and team are under high downforce, high-temperature conditions.
We take the challenge of Singapore,
Mekies said.
It’s a track that’s been challenging for the team many, many years. And in the context of what we are trying to see, it’s very, very, very important to see what suddenly doesn’t work there anymore, or whatever. And then after that, we will be back to tracks with medium speed corners, where we were killed by McLaren two races ago in Zandvoort. The gap was very significant. Also, we left Spa thinking that they were half a second faster than us, even though Max won the sprint. So that’s the next set of answers we will be chasing there.
– Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Team Principal
McLaren’s View on Red Bull’s Threat
McLaren’s team principal Andrea Stella, with his engineering background, remains cautious and pragmatic about the threat Verstappen and Red Bull pose. Rather than underestimating Verstappen, Stella acknowledges the improvements in Red Bull’s car and the danger a competitive Max always represents on race day.
We’re talking about Max Verstappen, we’re talking about Red Bull,
Stella said.
We have already seen in Monza that they improved. They seem to have made an improvement with their car, because the way they won Monza was something more for what was our assessment than simply a car that adapts well at low drag. They were fast in the corners, medium-speed and low-speed corners, fast in the straights. And we know that Max, when he has a competitive car, can deliver strong weekends. Conversely, we also knew that here in Baku for us would have been a difficult circuit. So we will see now in Singapore, which should be more of a one in which we should perform well. Hopefully we can go back to fighting for victories, and then we will see how the rest of the championship will unfold. But definitely, Max is in the contention for the drivers’ championship. We knew it, and we got confirmation today.
– Andrea Stella, McLaren Team Principal
Implications for the Closing Races of the Season
Max Verstappen’s path to the 2025 title is tenuous, resting on a blend of flawless driving, strategic brilliance from Red Bull, and significant setbacks from McLaren’s drivers. The situation calls for a perfect storm of racing circumstances for Verstappen to overcome a 69-point deficit, as McLaren continues to deliver strong performances.
How Red Bull adapts to circuits with varying airflow demands and heat will be critical, with Singapore looming as a potential turning point given its history as a difficult venue for the team. The response from Verstappen and the entire team to these upcoming challenges may define whether they maintain pressure or concede the championship.
Ultimately, the closing races will be a high-stakes showdown between Red Bull and McLaren, with every event carrying immense weight in deciding the 2025 Formula 1 World Champion.
