McLaren’s team principal, Andrea Stella, has acknowledged Max Verstappen as a genuine contender for the 2025 drivers’ championship, despite the season appearing dominated by his own drivers, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. This recognition comes after Verstappen secured back-to-back pole positions, including a calm and calculated qualifying effort in Baku, where others faltered amid chaotic conditions.
During the Baku qualifying session, Verstappen outpaced Carlos Sainz of Williams, while McLaren’s duo struggled—Piastri crashed at Turn 4, and Norris suffered a loss of control at Turn 15 while attempting a final lap early to avoid losing time due to potential red flags. Verstappen’s pole start, combined with Norris and Piastri qualifying seventh and ninth respectively, has positioned the Dutchman as the strong favorite to claim another victory, a scenario once thought unlikely.
Red Bull’s Revival Raises Questions on McLaren’s Challenge
Verstappen’s resurgence follows a period when Red Bull Racing faced significant difficulties, especially after a poor performance at the Hungarian Grand Prix. However, an impressive display at Monza demonstrated a striking turnaround for the Milton Keynes outfit. It is widely believed that key upgrades, including a redesigned floor and fresh engineering strategies, have revitalized Red Bull’s competitiveness.
Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s advisor, expressed optimism about the team’s renewed strength, noting that Verstappen could contend for wins on virtually every circuit, especially those not favoring McLaren’s cornering strengths.
McLaren’s own evaluation supports this view. Stella explained,
“Well, the takeaway from the Monza race and the way we have reviewed this internally and set our mindset for the final third of the season, was that Red Bull’s performance in Monza should not be considered a one-off because of Monza, or because of low downforce,”
adding,
“They have taken a new floor to Monza. They might be setting up their car slightly differently. We hear now Verstappen talking about grounding much more than it was doing before. So they might have unlocked performance, and I would not be surprised at all that Red Bull continues the streak that they have started. Pole position in Monza, victory, pole position here, Red Bull are a very serious contender to win races and a very serious contender for the drivers’ championship.”
When questioned if he truly believes Verstappen remains a viable threat, Stella responded emphatically,
“A firm YES. Can you write it in capitals? Because it was quoted in capitals,”
underscoring his confidence in Verstappen’s capability to return to championship contention.
Current Point Gap Presents a Daunting Challenge
Despite Stella’s conviction, the numbers present a stark reality. Verstappen trails Oscar Piastri by 94 points, with 224 points still available across the remaining races—a significant deficit that will require near-perfect performances. Yet, Verstappen’s record as a four-time world champion and Red Bull’s recent improvements keep hope alive within the McLaren camp.
Stella acknowledges that while McLaren’s drivers often fight closely and can sometimes deprive each other of maximum points, Verstappen’s skill combined with Red Bull’s progress makes him a persistent threat. He said,
“Of course, of course, We don’t have to forget that first of all he’s Max Verstappen – world champion for the last four years – in a fast car. Like I said before, there are races where McLaren may not enjoy any advantage from a competitiveness point of view.”
He also reflected on the internal dynamics, noting that Piastri and Norris “are always there,” which means point splits may naturally emerge in their intra-team rivalry. Yet, he insists,
“Yes, Verstappen and Red Bull in contention for the drivers’ championship.”
Mathematics of a Remarkable Comeback
Taking a purely mathematical perspective, overcoming a 94-point gap in eight race weekends is extraordinarily difficult. For Verstappen to overtake Piastri, he would need to win every remaining race and hope Piastri scores significantly fewer points—below 131 total from those events. Even finishing consistently third could leave Piastri with enough points to maintain the lead.
In the event of a tie, Verstappen would prevail due to a higher number of race wins. For Lando Norris, who currently leads Verstappen by 63 points, the margin is tighter, although his competition remains primarily with Piastri for top standing positions.
Such a comeback would be unprecedented in recent Formula 1 history, eclipsing even the dramatic points recoveries made by Sebastian Vettel in 2010 and Kimi Räikkönen in 2007. Vettel overturned a 44-point gap to Fernando Alonso, while Räikkönen overcame a 20-point deficit to Lewis Hamilton, partly thanks to a last-minute surge. Verstappen’s challenge, however, demands consistent near-flawless results and errors from competitors in an era known for unprecedented reliability.
Reliability and the Unlikely Path Forward
Reliability remains a key barrier to Verstappen’s hopes. McLaren has experienced only one technical retirement in more than two seasons, highlighting their strength in finishing races. Verstappen himself has acknowledged the difficulty of regaining the title under these circumstances, implicitly conceding the slim odds.
Given this reality, a meltdown by Piastri or Norris combined with Verstappen’s string of victories would be required to keep this title threat alive—an outcome McLaren’s Stella calls “a firm YES” on belief but that the statistics strongly contradict.
