Oscar Piastri’s championship chances remain in play heading into the decisive Abu Dhabi Grand Prix this weekend at Yas Marina Circuit, where he and fellow contenders Lando Norris and Max Verstappen each have mathematical shots at the title. With 25 points available for a win on Sunday, the season finale sets up an intense three-way battle that promises high drama and potential surprises in the 2025 Formula 1 championship race.
How the Drivers Stand Going Into the Finale
After a dramatic race in Qatar, Lando Norris leads the F1 Drivers’ Championship with a 12-point edge over Max Verstappen and is 16 points clear of his McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri. With only one race remaining, this narrow margin ensures that even a minor misstep could shift the outcome among these three drivers.
Norris’s Path to Securing the Title
The scenario is straightforward for Lando Norris: as long as he finishes on the podium in Abu Dhabi, he will secure his first world title regardless of the results from his closest competitors. If Norris finishes fourth—mirroring his placement in Qatar—he will need Verstappen to miss out on taking the victory. In the event of a non-finish or scoring no points, Norris’s hopes rest on Verstappen finishing outside the top three and Piastri not achieving higher than third.
What Verstappen Needs for a Fifth Title
Max Verstappen is seeking to claim his fifth consecutive world championship, an accomplishment that would match Michael Schumacher’s record with Ferrari. However, his options are limited: he must finish in the top three to remain in contention. Most realistically, Verstappen needs to win the race and have Norris fail to reach the podium to clinch the overall title, a situation reminiscent of his tense 2021 championship face-off with Lewis Hamilton.
Piastri’s Tough Route to the Championship
For Oscar Piastri to win the championship, a first place or runner-up finish is required. Yet, even if he wins, he is dependent on Norris ending the race no higher than sixth place. If Piastri finishes second, he would need Norris to come across the line 10th or lower and Verstappen finishing outside the podium. The slim possibility of these scenarios keeps Piastri’s championship dreams alive until the last lap.
What If the Points Are Tied?
A tie at the top of the championship table could materialize, for instance, if Piastri fails to win, Verstappen takes second, and Norris finishes seventh. In this scenario, Norris and Verstappen would both amass 414 points. The deciding factor would then become the number of race wins: all three top drivers have seven victories each this season. The next tiebreaker, second place finishes, favors Norris, who has eight compared to Verstappen’s six and Piastri’s four, meaning Norris would claim the title in any tie involving him. Notably, it is mathematically impossible for Verstappen and Piastri to tie on points if they are the top two in the standings.
Historical Precedent for Last-Race Turnarounds
This race marks the 32nd time in F1’s long history when the drivers’ championship is undecided until the very last event. However, history suggests overturning the lead at this stage is exceptionally challenging. Only nine times before has the points leader failed to secure the title in the final race, with the most recent upset occurring in 2010 when Sebastian Vettel trailed by 15 points but managed to leapfrog both Fernando Alonso and Webber to take his first world championship from third in the standings.
Other notable occasions include Giuseppe Farina (1950), John Surtees (1964), James Hunt (1976), Nelson Piquet (1981 and 1983), Alain Prost (1986), Jacques Villeneuve (1997), Kimi Raikkonen (2007), and Vettel (2010), each overturning a deficit to win the championship on the last day.
Awarding the Championship Trophy and What Follows
Even with the winner crowned amid the excitement in Abu Dhabi, the official presentation takes place weeks later. The FIA awards the Drivers’ Championship trophy at the annual Prize Gala, which this year is scheduled in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on December 12. McLaren, who sealed the Constructors’ Championship earlier in Singapore, will also be honored at this event as the 2025 season draws to a close and preparations begin for a new campaign.
Significance of the Abu Dhabi Showdown
The culmination of the 2025 Formula 1 season in Abu Dhabi not only determines the world champion among Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri, but also demonstrates the enduring unpredictability and competitiveness that defines the sport. The championship’s outcome will be shaped by strategic choices, driver consistency, and perhaps unexpected twists, underscoring why the final race retains such high stakes and global intrigue year after year.
