The 2025 Formula 1 world driver’s championship will be determined at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix this Sunday, with Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, and Max Verstappen all still in contention. The Oscar Piastri F1 championship scenario is complex, involving possible outcomes for all three, but only specific results will allow Piastri to claim the title for himself.
How Lando Norris Can Secure the Championship
Lando Norris enters the final race as the leader in the standings and has a straightforward path to win the championship. If he crosses the finish line first, the title is his. Additionally, a second- or third-place result guarantees him the crown regardless of other drivers’ performances. Should Norris finish fourth or lower, the situation becomes more challenging, and he would need other results to align in his favor to remain the champion. With a 12-point lead over Max Verstappen and a 16-point lead over Oscar Piastri, Norris retains his advantage by finishing anywhere on the podium.
The Role of Tie-Breakers in the Deciding Race
If drivers finish the season with the same points, tie-breakers will be applied using a count-back system. All three contenders currently have seven wins each, so second-place finishes will serve as the next tie-breaker. Norris holds the edge here with eight second-place finishes, Verstappen has six, and Piastri has four. This means that unless a driver wins in Abu Dhabi, their standing in second-place finishes will determine who prevails in the event of a tie.
Max Verstappen’s Challenging Route to Victory
Max Verstappen needs to outperform Norris by 13 points in the final event without allowing Piastri to close a five-point gap on him. For Verstappen, the cleanest route to a title is to win the race and hope Norris finishes fourth or lower, a result that would clinch his fifth championship. Should Verstappen fail to win, his remaining opportunities rely on finishing second or third, but only if Norris finishes further down the order and Piastri does not win the race. In these cases, Norris must finish at least eighth (if Verstappen is second) or ninth (if Verstappen is third) for Verstappen to clinch the championship.
Oscar Piastri’s Path: What Must Go Right
Oscar Piastri faces a significant challenge, sitting 16 points behind Norris. The clearest Oscar Piastri F1 championship scenario for victory is for him to win the race outright while hoping Norris finishes fifth or worse. If Piastri lands in second and Verstappen falls outside the top three, Piastri needs Norris to finish no better than tenth to snatch the title. A finish of third or lower means Piastri cannot secure the championship in Abu Dhabi, making his margin for error virtually nonexistent. To claim the crown, Piastri is reliant on a combination of both his own top-level result and specific finishes from his rivals.
Historical Parallels Heighten Anticipation
This Abu Dhabi showdown marks the first time since 2021 that the driver’s title will be decided in the last race. What makes the stakes even more intense is the presence of three contenders, a situation not seen at this track since 2010, when Sebastian Vettel overcame a 15-point deficit to Fernando Alonso to win the title. With Piastri’s deficit closely mirroring that historical gap, there is precedent for dramatic comebacks at this circuit. Previous season finales like this one have often produced surprising and chaotic results.
What Awaits at the Yas Marina Circuit
With each contender facing their own set of hurdles, the pressure will be intense when the cars line up at the Yas Marina Circuit. Lando Norris has control of his destiny, while Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri both require near-perfect outcomes from themselves and missteps from their rivals. As the race unfolds, tie-breaker scenarios and position changes will be closely watched, with every lap carrying the potential to decide the 2025 world driver’s championship.
