NASCAR insider Kevin Redfern recently discussed the 2026 championship betting outlook in an interview with Racer, highlighting concerns about Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin as a potential risky pick. Despite Hamlin’s strong performance in 2025, Redfern suggests fans may want to reconsider backing him for the upcoming season due to uncertainties surrounding his championship prospects, emphasizing the inherent risks tied to a “Denny Hamlin 2026 risk.”
Recap of 2025: A Narrow Loss for Hamlin
Hamlin had an impressive 2025 Cup Series campaign, securing multiple victories and showing dominant form throughout the season. However, in the final stages of the championship race in Phoenix, Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson overtook Hamlin, winning his second title. This dramatic finish cast doubt on Hamlin’s ability to seal the deal under pressure, despite his noteworthy season efforts.
Why the Insider Advises Caution on Hamlin
Contrary to popular belief expecting Hamlin to seize the title after last season’s near miss, Redfern advises caution. He labels Hamlin as a dangerous contender for futures betting, describing the championship bet on him as something
“you didn’t want to touch with a 10-foot pole.”
According to Redfern, the value lies more with drivers who offer longer odds but greater potential payoff, including names like Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott.
“Denny Hamlin’s future right now for the championship is the Grinch bet. You didn’t want to touch that with a 10-foot pole. When it comes to those favorites, I kind of group that group you mentioned there, Andrew, going down to Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott at 10 to 1. I love the value; I love the value in that section. And I think a lot of people who are analyzing futures bets are going to as well.”
“Anything below 10 to 1 on a future just think about the range of prices where that could go if you’re talking about this strategy, like it just can’t get that much more sharp,” he concluded.
What This Means for NASCAR Fans and Bettors
Redfern’s perspective casts an uneasy shadow over Hamlin’s championship hopes, marking a significant shift in how bettors might approach the 2026 season. While Hamlin remains a top competitor, the insider’s warnings suggest that betting on him could carry significant risk, and other drivers with longer odds might represent smarter choices. As the season approaches, fans and gamblers alike will be closely watching Hamlin’s performance to see if he overcomes these doubts or confirms those concerns.
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