The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series is shaping up to be as unpredictable and intense as ever, with several experts from FOX Sports offering their projections on who will shine this season. With the Daytona 500 set to kick off the series soon, these predictions focus on standout drivers, teams under pressure, and who might ultimately claim the coveted Cup Championship.
Teams Facing the Greatest Challenges in 2026
Bob Pockrass points to Richard Childress Racing (RCR) as the organization with the most to prove this season. After a disappointing previous year, RCR is confronting uncertainty about its future as key drivers and team structure face pressure.
You talk about Kyle Busch being a free agent and can you get the track right there with a new crew chief and get him feeling like this can be a place where he wants to keep racing at,
Pockrass said.
Where is Austin Dillon in his career? He obviously wants to run better as well. You’ve got a couple of young guys there who want to go Cup racing. Where are they looking for their futures? To me, RCR, they’ve gone through another round of competition changes, which seems like they’ve had a lot over the last two or three years. To me, they’re probably under the most pressure.
Both Busch and Dillon posted subpar performances last year, finishing 21st and 15th in the standings, which adds to the team’s mounting pressure to improve.
Kevin Harvick, on the other hand, identifies 23XI Racing as another team needing to elevate their 2026 results, especially emphasizing driver Tyler Reddick’s role.
We gave them a mulligan last year,
Harvick commented.
The bottom line is, Bubba [Wallace] got to victory lane, and we saw improvement from that car last year. Tyler Reddick has to win. I think he’s expected and went there to win races and been there long enough to win races. I think the scrutiny of that organization if they don’t, there’s no gimme this year.
Bubba’s been there long enough now that it’s time to start creeping into that multiple wins [per season]. Riley will hopefully run better after his first year in Cup. But the big Tyler Reddick scenario to me is you’re expecting multiple race wins out of that car and that company and, in my opinion, Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin expect them to go out and contend for a championship.
Last year, after a solid 2024 with three victories, Reddick failed to win any races but achieved seven top-five finishes, ending ninth in the overall standings.
Mamba Smith highlights RFK Racing and the 22 Group as teams with much to prove, noting their motivation after mixed results last season.
RFK needs to show they can be a top team again,
Smith said.
Obviously, what we just saw with Ryan Preece, that was great. He’s their top guy. He’s consistently their fastest guy. If I would say who is the most motivated, the 22 Group is the most motivated because of maybe how much people on social media talk about their championships.
Watch the 22 Group show you what they can do in a different format. Watch them come out and be a top team as far as average, because it’s different.
RFK’s drivers did not secure any wins last year, with all three finishing outside the top 15 in points, which intensifies pressure on the team heading into the new season.
Who Are the Breakout Drivers to Watch?
When it comes to upcoming breakout talents, Bob Pockrass favors Chris Buescher, especially if RFK Racing can turn in a stronger team performance.
When we talk to other drivers about, ‘Who do you think is gonna make the chase this year who didn’t make it last year?,’ a third of them didn’t even think twice before they said Chris Buescher. If RFK is stronger as a group, he’s going to be really strong,
Pockrass explained.
Buescher’s last two seasons have shown a downturn after finishing seventh in 2023, but he still managed five top-five finishes in 2025.
Kevin Harvick casts his vote for Ty Gibbs as a driver poised to break through in 2026 due to his exceptional speed and potential within his team.
Just because he’s been so fast. He’s got the speed in the race car to keep himself in contention, can race well, and it’s just about getting over that hump to get to victory lane,
Harvick said.
I think they have the capability, the stability within the team now that they think they can have a breakout year.
At 23 years old, Gibbs has maintained a top 20 position in the Cup standings across all three seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing, including five top-five finishes in 2025.
Mamba Smith identifies Chase Elliott as a potential breakout star despite his past achievements, highlighting his team’s recent progress in car development.
I’m just thinking that they started figuring it out with the car,
Smith remarked.
That was just the biggest thing. He wasn’t very comfortable driving this car. Now, they figured it out. They went through all their gremlins. And their system is more to their liking. They probably feel like, ‘It’s back in our wheelhouse. They’re probably going to have a good year.
After finishing eighth last season and earning two wins, Elliott appears ready to reassert himself as a championship contender.
Expected Top Performers in Race Wins This Year
Pockrass expects Kyle Larson to continue his strong performance into 2026, following his second Cup Series victory last year.
I don’t see any reason why they’re going to get any worse,
he said confidently.
Harvick places faith in Denny Hamlin’s motivation to reclaim a dominant position after a runner-up finish in 2025. He emphasizes the personal and emotional challenges Hamlin has endured, fueling his drive.
I could definitely make the argument for Larson, but there’s still a lot of motivation for Denny Hamlin,
Harvick stated.
I just know he’s talked about his shoulder being hurt, being through so many things with his family, losing the championship and his dad’s passing and everything. I still believe there’s some fire in there to motivate him and as a driver, every year you’re looking for something to motivate you when you’ve done it that long. I hope that plays out, because I think he deserves it. I think sentiment for Denny Hamlin this year is going to be different. It started to shift last year. I believe that fan sentiment is going to be pretty positive this year as he rolls into the race track.
Mamba Smith suggests Christopher Bell has a strong chance to lead in wins, backed by motivation and a well-rounded skill set despite midseason struggles during the previous campaign.
I almost went with his other teammate, Chase Briscoe, but Christopher Bell is highly, highly motivated to win a championship,
Smith noted.
That group is so fast. There’s really not any holes in his game. So, I think there’s a very good chance he ends the year with the most wins.
Predictions for the 2026 Cup Series Champion
Bob Pockrass forecasts Ryan Blaney to take the championship title this year. Blaney has steadily been among the series’ elite drivers, finishing sixth last season after a 2023 championship and a second-place finish in 2024.
Kevin Harvick supports William Byron as a mature contender ready to clinch a title, underscoring Byron’s strong partnership with crew chief Rudy and their ability to endure challenges together.
It’s just that maturity and the things that go with a team. I think he and Rudy have a great relationship,
Harvick explained.
They have worked through a lot of hard moments together, and that’s what it takes to be the champ.
Mamba Smith places his confidence in Christopher Bell, linking Bell’s potential championship run with his likelihood of accumulating the most wins this season following four consecutive top-five finishes.
Last year, I went with William Byron, and I still feel like the fire is there. But this year, I’m going with Christopher Bell. There’s something about it with him, and I think it’s his time.
As the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series approaches, fans can expect a fiercely competitive season loaded with motivated drivers and teams eager to prove their worth. The pressure on established teams like Richard Childress Racing, 23XI Racing, and RFK is intense, while breakout drivers such as Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs, and Chase Elliott look to rise. With established talents like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell battling for victories, the fight for the Cup Champion title promises to be relentless. How these storylines unfold will define the excitement and drama of the 2026 season and could reshape the landscape of NASCAR racing.
