Shane Van Gisbergen’s journey in the NASCAR Cup Series continues to attract attention as the 2026 season approaches, with an insider forecasting that the New Zealander will narrowly secure a spot in the playoffs. This prediction comes despite NASCAR’s departure from the traditional win-and-you’re-in format toward a more points-focused qualification system, making consistent performance critical.
Jordan Bianchi, speaking on a recent episode of The Teardown, detailed why he believes Van Gisbergen will make it into the postseason, even if the road is fraught with challenges. Bianchi emphasized SVG’s exceptional ability on road courses and anticipates gradual progress on oval tracks, which together could provide enough points to clinch the final playoff berth.
Road Courses: Van Gisbergen’s Stronghold
Bianchi highlighted Van Gisbergen’s dominance on road courses as a key factor that could propel him into the playoffs. Recognized as arguably the Cup Series’ top road-course driver, Van Gisbergen’s knack for winning and earning crucial bonus points on these tracks sets him apart from many competitors.
“I think SVG does get in the playoffs,”
Jordan Bianchi, NASCAR analyst, stated, noting the importance of wins under the points system.
Such victories offer not only race wins but valuable bonus points that can boost Van Gisbergen’s standing significantly.
However, Bianchi tempered expectations regarding an ongoing winning streak, citing rising talents like Van Gisbergen’s teammate Connor Zilisch, who might start to challenge SVG’s advantage on road courses. Still, maintaining consistent front-running results in these events remains a major benefit for Van Gisbergen moving forward.
“He is really, really good on these road courses,”
Bianchi remarked.
He is going to win road course races, and those bonus points are going to go a long way.
Improvement Expected on Oval Tracks
Oval circuits, long considered the toughest obstacle for Van Gisbergen in Cup competition, present a more complicated outlook. After completing his first full NASCAR season focusing primarily on oval racing, Bianchi anticipates that the experience will yield incremental improvements rather than immediate dominance. This progression is crucial in narrowing the points gap against specialists on these tracks.
“He doesn’t need to be brilliant every week,”
Bianchi explained.
He just needs to be good enough on the ovals to raise up the point standings a little bit.
This steady enhancement on ovals, combined with strong performances on road courses, could tip the scales in Van Gisbergen’s favor, even if he doesn’t regularly finish in victory lane. Points earned from consistent top finishes might be equally decisive.
Playoff Picture and Narrow Margin for Entry
Bianchi’s prediction is far from certain; he expects Van Gisbergen’s playoff qualification to come down to the wire, potentially hinging on results as late as the second Daytona race of the season. He suggested that Van Gisbergen could enter the playoffs as the 16th seed, grabbing the last available spot.
Ultimately, the choice between Van Gisbergen and Ryan Preece was a close call for Bianchi, who leaned toward Van Gisbergen’s demonstrated capacity to adapt and succeed at the highest level of NASCAR competition.
“Do I think he’s going to get in comfortably? No,”
Bianchi admitted.
But I do think he gets in.
If Bianchi’s forecast proves accurate, Van Gisbergen’s 2026 campaign is unlikely to be marked by outright dominance but rather by crucial, well-timed performances that ensure he remains in championship contention.
