NASCAR is bringing back the Chase for the Cup playoff system for the 2026 season across all three divisions, ending the current playoff era and reinstating the points-based format. This shift has reignited discussions around which drivers will qualify for the coveted 16-driver Chase field in the NASCAR Cup Series Chase.
Experts have analyzed performance factors such as four-year averages with the Next Gen car, offseason momentum, team strength, and breakout potential to project the most likely contenders for the upcoming season’s Chase.
Predicted Front-Runners for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase
Kyle Larson: The Defending Champion’s Momentum Continues
Kyle Larson, driving for Hendrick Motorsports, enters 2026 as a leading contender due to his combination of elite equipment and peak career form. Since the introduction of the Next Gen car, Larson has consistently delivered multiple wins each year, averaging over 1,100 laps led per season. His dominance carried into 2025 where he topped the points standings, ultimately finishing with a 13.7 average finish, 16 victories, and 77 top-ten placements, solidifying his status as a Chase guarantee.
Denny Hamlin: An Experienced Veteran Facing Challenges Yet Still Competitive
Denny Hamlin, representing Joe Gibbs Racing, is coming off a near championship in 2025 and remains a strong Chase contender despite a turbulent offseason and some uncertainty about his focus. At 45 years old, questions naturally arise about his longevity, compounded by a nagging shoulder injury. Nonetheless, Hamlin led the series in wins with six and topped over 1,000 laps led, proving his ability to remain competitive and a solid bet for the Chase once again.
Ryan Blaney: Leading Ford’s Charge with Consistent Strength
Ryan Blaney of Team Penske remains the leading Ford driver entering 2026, backed by a strong 2025 season. He secured four wins, achieved 15 top-five finishes, 19 top-tens, and led 852 laps, finishing with a 14.6 average finish. Notably, Blaney scored the second-most stage points, a significant factor under the points-based Chase format. His strengths in long runs on intermediate and short tracks along with impressive tire management make him a championship favorite poised to lock in a Chase spot.
William Byron: The Consistent Contender from Hendrick Motorsports
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports’ regular season champion of 2025, stands as another likely qualifier for the 2026 Chase. Byron demonstrated remarkable consistency all season long, never dropping below second place in the regular-season standings. His back-to-back average starts within the top 10 and multiple wins each year in the Next Gen era highlight his ability to contend regularly. With Hendrick’s proven strength in this format, Byron is expected to remain a dominant presence.
Christopher Bell: A Rising Star with Strong Playoff Experience
Christopher Bell, also racing for Joe Gibbs Racing, started 2025 with solid momentum that analysts expect to continue. Recognized as one of the strongest drivers since the Next Gen car’s debut, Bell is a threat on all track types. Paired with championship-winning crew chief Adam Stevens, Bell has proven his consistency with an impressive playoff run last season, posting eight top-10 finishes in the final 10 races and ending 2025 with an 11.2 average finish and tied for most top tens, reinforcing his position as a Chase favorite.
Chase Elliott: Leveraging Consistency and Experience
For Hendrick Motorsports, Chase Elliott adds a key veteran presence likely to excel under the revived Chase system. Known for building consistent campaigns, Elliott’s steady output aligns well with the new format compared to the previous playoff system. The 2022 regular season title winner finished 2025 among the top five in overall points, achieving his first multi-win season in three years and tying for third in top tens with 19, underpinning his strong Chase credentials.
Joey Logano: A Proven Playoff Performer Ready for the Old Format
Joey Logano of Team Penske, a defining driver of the previous playoff era with multiple championships, supports the return of the Chase system. His ability to handle pressure and succeed during high-stakes moments remains intact, and with strong backing from Team Penske’s resources, Logano is expected to secure his spot in the 2026 Chase.
Tyler Reddick: Rebounding From a Difficult Season with Promise
Tyler Reddick, part of 23XI Racing, faced challenges in 2025 with no wins for the first time since the Next Gen car’s debut. Despite this, he ended the year with a respectable top-ten points finish and a 14.5 average finish, tied for sixth in the series. If Reddick can find victory lane during the 2026 regular season and maintain his strength on intermediate tracks while avoiding incidents, he stands a solid chance to qualify for the Chase.
Ross Chastain: Trackhouse Racing’s Reliable Contender
Ross Chastain is Trackhouse Racing‘s lead driver and has developed into a consistent winner, continuing a pattern of at least one victory per season over the past two years. Evolving his racing style for more confidence and results consistency, Chastain excels in extracting top finishes from cars with less raw speed. Improving qualifying performance to start races up front could greatly enhance his chances of locking in a Chase position.
Chase Briscoe: Bringing Momentum and Speed to Joe Gibbs Racing
In his first season replacing Martin Truex Jr., Chase Briscoe delivered a breakout 2025 campaign, establishing himself firmly within Joe Gibbs Racing. His chemistry with the team and sponsors was evident as he matched the best average start in the series at 9.9, tied for the most top-five finishes at 19, and led all drivers with seven pole positions. With top-tier equipment and continued qualifying strength, Briscoe is expected to comfortably secure a Chase berth in 2026.
Bubba Wallace: Overcoming Obstacles to Solidify His Role
Bubba Wallace earned 23XI Racing’s spotlight moment in 2025 by winning at the Brickyard, marking a first major victory for the team. Partnering with crew chief Charles Denike has improved his versatility and race pace, especially on road courses and in stage points accrued. However, high attrition with nine DNFs in 2025 must be addressed. If Wallace can improve reliability and late-race composure, he will transition from a bubble driver to a strong chance for the Chase.
Chris Buescher: Consistency as RFK Racing’s Strength
Chris Buescher emerges as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return to the Chase points format. Driving for RFK Racing, Buescher’s steady and dependable style aligns with the team’s philosophy. Since the Next Gen car’s introduction, he has consistently finished within the top 16 at playoff starts, with strong showings on intermediate, short tracks, and improving road course skills. Maintaining this model of consistency should earn Buescher a Chase spot in 2026.
Kyle Busch: Searching for Stability Amid Format Changes
Kyle Busch and Richard Childress Racing face pressure to rebound in 2026 following a decline in recent results. Busch, the veteran with prior success in the Chase format, has voiced opposition to the format change but must focus on operational improvements with new crew chief Jim Pohlman. Success will depend on more frequent top-ten finishes and refining his connection to the Next Gen car. If the team gels, Busch’s experience and tenacity could secure his return to the Chase.
Alex Bowman: Hendrick Motorsports’ Fourth Strong Contender
Alex Bowman offers Hendrick Motorsports another promising option based on his consistent performance in 2025. Ranking eleventh in stage points and tied for sixth in top tens, Bowman has demonstrated the capability to compete well under the Chase style points format. Early in 2026, his team has revamped his pit and road crew to boost competitiveness. Increasing top-five finishes could earn Bowman a spot in the Chase field.
Brad Keselowski: Fighting Back From Injury Toward Another Shot
Recovering from a broken leg, Brad Keselowski may require time to regain full stamina but has the proven skill to accumulate points and contend for the 2026 Chase. He must reduce DNFs—seven in 2025—and increase top-ten finishes. Known as a former Chase champion, Keselowski’s combination of resilience and competitive speed provides the foundation to challenge once more if his health and performance align.
Drivers on the Cusp: Intense Competition for the Final Chase Spots
The battle for the final positions in the 16-driver Chase field will be fiercely contested among several capable drivers who narrowly missed preseason top rankings but have potential to surge.
Austin Cindric must improve his consistency beyond superspeedways to become a serious threat, as his Next Gen era performances have lacked in week-to-week speed.
Ty Gibbs faces challenges sustaining pace amid leadership changes following crew chief Chris Gabehart’s exit, which may impact his ability to capitalize on earlier promise in the 2025 season.
Shane van Gisbergen remains dominant on road courses but needs to bolster his oval track performance to routinely qualify under the Chase system. The arrival of a strong rookie teammate and the evolving schedule placing more emphasis on oval tracks add complexity to his path.
Austin Dillon’s strength on short and intermediate tracks contrasts with struggles across the broader schedule, resulting in consistent finishes outside the top 25 that lessen his Chase chances.
Carson Hocevar shows promise to earn a victory but his inconsistent results and risk-taking may prevent a sustained Chase qualification unless his team, Spire Motorsports, improves reliability and stage point accumulation.
Ryan Preece, fresh off a win in the Clash and a top-16 points finish in 2025, aims to climb into the Chase by improving consistency across track types and enhancing stage points.
Connor Zilisch: The Rookie with a Real Shot at the Chase
Connor Zilisch stands as the sole rookie projected to reach the 2026 Chase field. Renowned for road course expertise in his 2025 O’Reilly Auto Parts Series rookie season, questions about his oval racing were answered with a steep learning curve and adaptability to all track types. His dominant debut season earned trust as he transitions into a Cup Series ride known for playoff success during the Next Gen era. Zilisch’s challenge will be maximizing results on road courses while maintaining competitive top-20 speeds elsewhere. If he minimizes rookie errors as he has in lower series, Zilisch has a strong chance to compete for the Chase’s final spot.
Looking Ahead: The Impact of NASCAR’s Format Shift on the 2026 Season
The reinstated Chase for the Cup reshapes competition dynamics by emphasizing consistent point accumulation, stage finishes, and racecraft over the unpredictable playoff resets used in recent years. Experienced veterans like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano remain poised to thrive, while emerging stars such as Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe have new opportunities to assert themselves. The format revival also challenges teams and drivers to adapt strategies, with greater emphasis on steady performance across all tracks.
The intense competition for Chase spots ensures high stakes throughout the regular season, creating an anxious anticipation among fans and participants alike. As some drivers aim to rebound from recent struggles and others seek breakout seasons, the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series promises compelling battles fueled by this format’s return.
